Ukususela ekupheleni kuka-2024, i asteroid 2024 YR4 Iye yaba yenye yezona zinto zijongwe kakhulu luluntu lwezenzululwazi lwamazwe ngamazwe. Oko kwaqala njengesilumkiso sobuchwephesha esifihlakeleyo kwiinkqubo zeNASA kunye neendawo ezininzi zokujonga izinto, kuye kwaguquka kwaba ngumzekelo wesifundo sendlela iLanga elisebenza ngayo namhlanje. ukhuselo lweplanethi kunye nolawulo lomngcipheko wendawo.
Kangangeenyanga, iindaba ezisematheni zazisasazwa zichaza impembelelo enokubakho nxamnye Umhlaba ngo-2032Oku kubangele inkxalabo kuluntu. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko kufakwe izinto ezintsha—ingakumbi ngenxa yeJames Webb Space Telescope—umfanekiso utshintshe ngokupheleleyo: imeko yokungqubana neplanethi yethu ngoku ayisekho, kwaye amathuba okungqubana neNyanga nawo ancitshisiwe ukuya kumaxabiso angaphantsi kakhulu.
I-asteroid 2024 YR4 yafunyanwa njani kwaye phi
I-2024 YR4 yaqatshelwa okokuqala ngenkqubo I-ATLAS, evela eChileI-Asteroid Observatory, inethiwekhi yeeteleskopu ezizenzekelayo eziqhutywa yiYunivesithi yaseHawaii kwaye yenzelwe ukufumana izinto ezikufutshane noMhlaba, ekuqaleni yahlulwahlulwa njenge-NEO (Near-Earth Object) kwaye, kungekudala emva koko, njenge-asteroid enokuba yingozi ngenxa yokuba umjikelezo wayo ukufutshane noweplanethi yethu.
Uqikelelo lokuqala lobukhulu bayo belubanzi kakhulu, nto leyo eyenza ukuba ibe phakathi 40 kunye ne-90 yeemitha ububanziNgokuhamba kwexesha kunye nokufika kwedatha echanekileyo, loo mda uye wehliswa waya kuthi ga phakathi kweemitha ezingama-53 nama-67, ubukhulu obufana nobude besakhiwo esinemigangatho eli-15.
Olu luhlu lobukhulu lwanele ukuthethelela ukubekwa esweni ngokusondeleyo. Into enobukhulu obunje ayizukubangela isiganeko sokuphela kwehlabathi, kodwa inokubangela ukuba kubekho ukutshabalala kwehlabathi. umonakalo omkhulu wengingqi xa kukho impembelelo ethe ngqo, ingakumbi ukuba indawo echaphazelekileyo yayiyindawo enabantu abaninzi. ukubeka esweni ngokubanzi Idibanisa izinto eziqwalaselweyo kunye neemodeli ukunciphisa ukungaqiniseki.
Ngokuhambelana nokufunyanwa kwayo, i-asteroid yafakwa kwiinkqubo zokubala ezizenzekelayo ezifana Ukuthunyelwa, isixhobo se-NASA esivavanya rhoqo indlela amawaka ezinto ezikufutshane noMhlaba ukuze sibone nayiphi na imeko yomngcipheko kwangaphambili.
Ngomhla wama-22 kuDisemba ngo-2032: umhla owaqalisa ngawo ii-alamu
Iiprojekti zokuqala ze-orbital zibeke i- indlela enokwenzeka yokugxeka ka-2024 YR4 nge-22 kaDisemba 2032. Ekuqaleni, amathuba okuba kubekho impembelelo eMhlabeni ayephantsi kakhulu, kodwa adlula umda wobuchwephesha we-1%, oyindlela esetyenziswayo ukuvula iinkqubo ezisemthethweni zesaziso kunye nokhuselo lweplanethi.
Ngamanye amaxesha, ezinye izibalo zokuqala zibeke amathuba okungqubana noMhlaba kufutshane 3%Oku kukhokelele kwiingcaciso ezoyikisayo kwiindaba nakwiinethiwekhi zentlalo. Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba, ngokwembono yesayensi, kwanala maphesenti ahlala ephantsi, nangona anele ukuthethelela ukuphononongwa ngokunzulu kwempembelelo yawo. Ukuze uqonde ngcono uhlobo lwala mathuba kunye nezisongelo, kuyacetyiswa ukuba ufunde malunga usongo olubangelwa zii-asteroids ezithile.
Ukusebenzisa ezi nkqubo akuthethi ukuba kukho ingozi esondelayo, kodwa kuthetha indlela yokwenza ulungelelwaniso lwamazwe ngamazweIiarhente zasemkhathini, amaziko ophando, kunye noorhulumente bayaziswa ngobukho bento efanelwe ukujongwa ngokusondeleyo, ngokuchanekileyo ukuze kuthintelwe ukumangaliswa kwixesha eliphakathi nelide.
Njengoko iinyanga zazidlula kwaye kongezwa imilinganiselo emitsha yendawo, amathuba okuqala okungqubana noMhlaba ayehla kancinci kancinci. Iirekhodi ezisemthethweni zeNASA zibonisa indlela iindlela ezilinganisiweyo eziye zalungiswa ngayo ukuze kuthintelwe ngokupheleleyo naluphi na ungqubano neplanethi yethu kwinkulungwane ezayo.
Ukusuka kwingozi ukuya eMhlabeni ukuya ekujongeni iNyanga
Akuba nje ithuba lokuba kubekho ukungqubana noMhlaba lisusiwe, ingqwalasela yesayensi yatshintshela kwi lunaIimodeli ze-orbital zibonise ukuba, malunga nexesha elifanayo (kwakhona malunga ne-22 kaDisemba 2032), i-asteroid yayinokudlula kufutshane nesathelayithi yendalo. Iiofisi zokhuselo lweeplanethi ezifana ne- I-Arhente YaseYurophu Yendawo (ESA) Bathathe inxaxheba ekubaleni nasekutshintshiselaneni ngedatha.
Kwelo nqanaba lohlalutyo, amathuba okuba impembelelo yenyanga ibe kufutshane 4,3%Eli xabiso, nangona liphantsi, lalimangalisa kuba lalimele ukungqubana nomphezulu wenye indalo yasezulwini esiyazi kakuhle indlela ejikeleza ngayo. Eli nani laliyisihloko sophando olunzulu kwiiofisi zokhuselo lweeplanethi ezifana nelo le- I-Arhente YaseYurophu Yendawo (ESA).
Nangona kunjalo, amaphulo amatsha okujonga—kuquka lawo aqhutywe ngeJames Webb Space Telescope—avumele izazinzulu ukuba ziphucule umjikelezo we-2024 YR4 kangangokuba zikwagweba nokuba kukho ukungqubana neNyanga. Ubalo lwangoku lubonisa ukuba i-asteroid iya kudlula kumgama omalunga ne-100. Iikhilomitha ezingama-21.200 ukusuka kumphezulu wenyanga, ethathwa njengomgama okhuselekileyo kakhulu.
Ngokwezinto ezinokwenzeka, oku kuthetha ukuba kukho ngaphezulu kwesinye Amathuba angama-96% ukuba akuyi kubakho mpembelelo kwisathelayithi, njengoko zombini i-NASA kunye ne-ESA zigxininisile. Ngamanye amazwi, sithetha ngemeko yomngcipheko wethiyori eyancipha njengoko ulwazi olutsha lufumaneka.
Idlale yiphi indima iJames Webb Space Telescope?
Enye yezinto ezitshintshileyo kwimbali yowama-2024 YR4 ibe ligalelo le Itheyibhuli yendawo kaJames WebbLe ndawo yokujonga isibhakabhaka, eyenzelwe ngokukodwa ukufunda indalo iphela enzulu, ikwabonakalise ubuchule obumangalisayo bokulandelela izinto ezincinci nezingabonakaliyo ezikufutshane neNkqubo yeLanga.
Kwinxalenye yonyaka ka-2025, indawo kunye nokukhanya kwale asteroid kwenze kwaba nzima ukuyibona kwiiteleskopu ezisemhlabeni nakwezinye iindawo zokujonga isibhakabhaka. Kwimeko enjalo, ubuchule bukaWebb bokuqonda kunye nokuzinza, kunye nenkqubo yakhe yokulandelela izinto ezihambayo, kwabonakala kubalulekile.
Ngenxa yezi zinto ziqwalaselweyo, izazi ngeenkwenkwezi zikwazile misela ngokuchanekileyo okukhulu ukujikeleza kwe-asteroid, kunciphisa ukungaqiniseki okwakusekho kwiimodeli. Ngaphandle kwale datha, ezinye zeeparameter ezibalulekileyo zisenokungacaciswanga de kube yiminyaka eliqela kamva, nto leyo eyayiza kwandisa ixesha lokuthandabuza de kube sekupheleni kweminyaka elishumi.
Ulwazi olufunyenweyo luvumele ukumisela ngokuchanekileyo umgama okufutshane kakhulu neNyanga kunye noqikelelo olucokisekileyo lobukhulu kunye nokukhanya kwento. Enyanisweni, iWebb incede ekutshintsheni ukusuka kwimeko enobungozi obuphantsi kodwa evulekileyo ukuya kwenye ye umngcipheko awusekho, kokubini eMhlabeni nakwisathelayithi.
Eli tyala libe ngumzekelo ocacileyo wendlela ukuhlanganiswa kweeteleskopu ezisemhlabeni, iinethiwekhi zokujonga ezenzekelayo, kunye neendawo zokujonga izinto ezinkulu esibhakabhakeni ezinokunciphisa ngayo ukungaqiniseki ngexesha elifutshane.
Kuza kwenzeka ntoni ukuba i-asteroid efana ne-2024 YR4 ichaphazeleka
Nangona umngcipheko wempembelelo ye-2024 YR4 okwangoku ulinganiselwe kakhulu, uluntu lwezenzululwazi lusebenzisa olu hlobo lweemeko ukuchaza izinto ngendlela yokufundisa. Yintoni enokuba nemiphumo enjalo kwinto enobukhulu obunjalo? ukuba iza kungqubana noMhlaba okanye neNyanga.
Iimodeli zangoku zibonisa ukuba i-asteroid emalunga neemitha ezingama-50 ukuya kwezingama-70 inokuba yeyona inokubangela oku. isiqwenga esisemoyeni ngaphambi kokuba ifikelele kumphezulu. Le meko, eyaziwa ngokuba yi-airburst, yabonwa ngendlela efanayo kwiziganeko zembali ezifana ne-Chelyabinsk meteor eRashiya ngo-2013, nangona ineeparameter ezahlukeneyo. Kwimizekelo yee-bolides kunye nee-airburst, jonga uhlalutyo kwi i-meteorite eJamani.
Ukuba olo qhushumbo belunokwenzeka phezu kolwandle, isizukulwana se- itsunami enkulu Kuthathwa njengento engenakwenzeka. Uhlobo lwe-shock wave oluveliswa kukudubula kolu hlobo aluhlali lunamandla kunye nolwakhiwo olufunekayo ukuqala iliza elikhulu nelitshabalalisayo kwihlabathi liphela.
Nangona kunjalo, ukuba esi siganeko besiza kwenzeka kwindawo enabantu abaninzi, iziphumo zaso zingaqala ekwaphukeni okukhulu kweefestile ukuya kumonakalo omkhulu wesakhiwo kwizakhiwo ezikufutshane nendawo apho amandla akhutshwa khona aphezulu, kuxhomekeke kwi ukuphakama kokuqhuma kunye nobungakanani obuchanekileyo bento leyo.
Kwimeko yeNyanga, loo ngqushu ingadala umngxuma obonakalayo kwaye ikhuphe uthuli oluninzi kunye nezinto eziphezulu. Kwiingcali zejoloji yeeplanethi kunye nokukhusela isithuba, ukubukela isiganeko esinjalo bukhoma—ukuba sikhe senzeke nenye into—kuya kuba lithuba elimangalisayo lokuqonda ngcono indlela iindawo ezinamatye ezisabela ngayo kwezi ngxwabangxwaba.
Ukhuselo lweplanethi, izivumelwano kunye nentsebenziswano yamazwe ngamazwe
Ityala lika-2024 YR4 libonisa kakuhle indlela izinto ezisebenza ngayo namhlanje iinkqubo zesilumkiso sakwangoko zehlabathi Kwimeko yezinto ezikufutshane noMhlaba. Kwakamsinya nje ukuba i-asteroid ihlangabezane neemfuno ezithile—kuquka ukudlula umda we-1% wamathuba okuba ichaphazeleke kwixesha elizayo—iiprotokholi ezisekwe kwihlabathi liphela ziyavuselelwa.
Ezi nkqubo ziquka unxibelelwano lwedatha ngamaziko afana ne- Kufuphi neZiko lokuLungelelanisa iZinto zoMhlaba evela kwi-ESA eYurophu okanye kwiZiko leNASA leZifundo zeZinto eziNcinci zoMhlaba. Ukusuka apho, ukutshintshiselana ngokuqwalasela kulungelelaniswa phakathi kweeteleskopu kwihlabathi liphela, kuquka nezo ziseSpain nakwamanye amazwe aseYurophu.
Umbono ngamnye omtsha ufakwa kwiimodeli zekhompyutha ezibala amawaka eendlela ezinokwenzeka kwaye zihlaziye amathuba okuba nefuthe ngexesha langempela. Oku kuchaza isizathu sokuba, kwiinyanga ezimbalwa, amanani anxulumene ne 2024 YR4 Ziye zasuka ekubeni yinto ephambili ekufuneka ijongwe yaza yathathwa njengengozi eseleyo.
Kunye nokubeka esweni, ukhuselo lweeplanethi lusebenza kwiindlela ezahlukeneyo izicwangciso zokunciphisaPhakathi kwezindululo ezifundweyo kukho ukuphambuka ngenxa yempembelelo ye-kinetic (njengoko kuvavanywe ngempumelelo kwi-DART mission ngo-2022), ukusetyenziswa kweetraktha zomxhuzulane, okanye, kwiimeko ezigqithisileyo, ukusetyenziswa kweziqhushumbisi zenyukliya esibhakabhakeni ukutshintsha indlela yento eyingozi. Umsebenzi we-DART kwaye iziphumo zayo kwiDimorphos zihlala zikhankanywa njengesalathiso esisebenzayo.
Okwangoku, akukho mfuneko yokusebenzisa olu hlobo lwamanyathelo kwi-2024 YR4, kodwa ukubeka esweni kwayo kube yindawo efanelekileyo yokuvavanya iinkqubo zokucoca, ukuphucula ulungelelwaniso phakathi kwee-arhente, kunye nokulungisa iziseko ezifunekayo ukuze kuthathwe amanyathelo ngokukhawuleza ukuba isiganeko sexesha elizayo siyafunyaniswa. i-asteroid esongela ngokwenene.
Ngalo lonke ulwazi olufumanekayo, umfanekiso odwetshwe yi-asteroid 2024 YR4 uyaqinisekisa: Umhlaba awusekho sengozini, iNyanga igcina amathuba okuba ingqubane incinci kakhulu, kwaye iimodeli ziyaqhubeka nokuphuculwa ngedatha nganye entsha. Okubaluleke kakhulu kukuba le nxalenye incinci yamatye iye yasebenza ukuvavanya, phantse ngexesha langempela, amandla eenkqubo zokujonga isithuba, ubuchule bentsebenziswano yamazwe ngamazwe, kunye nenqanaba lokulungela ukhuselo lweplanethi yanamhlanje—indawo apho iYurophu neSpain zithatha inxaxheba ngokukhutheleyo kunye noluntu lonke lwezenzululwazi.
