Iimeko ze Imbalela eqhubekayo kunye namaza obushushu obunzulu baqhuba ukwanda okucacileyo komlilo wamahlathi ogqithisileyo kwimimandla emininzi yeplanethi, kunye neempembelelo ezichaphazela impilo, uqoqosho kunye ne-ecosystems, kwaye ziqinisekisa ukuba Umlilo wamahlathi uya kuba yingozi ngakumbi kwaye uhlale ixesha elide.
Uhlalutyo olutsha lwamazwe ngamazwe, oluphuhliswe ngamaqela enzululwazi avela kwi-Ofisi ye-Met, iZiko lase-UK le-Ecology & Hydrology, iYunivesithi yase-East Anglia kunye ne-ECMWF, iinkcukacha zokuba Ukutshintsha kwemozulu kwandisa amathuba kunye nobukhulu wemililo emikhulu, nangona ubunzima obuchanekileyo begalelo labo kwiimpembelelo eziboniweyo zisavavanywa, ngokutsho kophononongo izizathu, imisebenzi kunye nemeko yangoku.
Ithini ingxelo entsha yenzululwazi
Ingxelo isetyenzisiwe Uqwalaselo lwesathelayithi kunye nemifuziselo yemozulu ephucukileyo ukuchonga oonobangela kunye neepateni zemililo ngexesha lonyaka lokugqibela (ngoMatshi 2024 ukuya kuFebruwari 2025), ukuhlalutya ukuguquguquka kwemozulu kunye nokusetyenziswa komhlaba, kwaye kuhambelana nenkqubela phambili iimodeli zokulumkisa kwangaphambili.
EUnited States, imililo kaJanuwari kwindawo yaseLos Angeles, ngokweemodeli, kabini kunokwenzeka kunye nendawo etshisiweyo ngokuphindwe ngama-25 kwimozulu yangoku kunokuba bekulindelwe ngaphandle kokufudumala okubangelwa ngabantu, ipateni ehambelana nezifundo ezicebisa ukuba Umlilo wamahlathi uya kwanda kwiminyaka ezayo.
EMzantsi Melika, imililo ebhalwe kummandla we Pantanal-Chiquitano Bafikelele kubukhulu obuphindwe ngama-35 ubukhulu kunesiqhelo, ngelixa iziqendu ezingazange zibonwe ngaphambili zabonwa eAmazon naseCongo, kunye nomxholo wemozulu othanda ukusasazeka kwabo.
Ababhali bagxininisa ukuba ukufudumala kwehlabathi kuye kwanda ukubakho kwemililo eMazantsi eCalifornia ubuncinci amaxesha amabini ukuya kwamathathu, nangona belumkisa ukuba kusesekuseni kakhulu ukumisela ukuba ubungakanani obuchanekileyo bokutshintsha kwemozulu buchaza umonakalo wokugqibela kumlilo ngamnye.
Impembelelo yommandla kunye namanani abalulekileyo
Ixesha le-2024-2025 lishiye ibhalansi ye 3,7 yezigidi zeekhilomitha ezizikwere utshatyalaliswe ngomlilo, ummandla omkhulu kuneIndiya; ukongeza, abantu abazizigidi ezili-100 kunye nepropathi exabisa 215.000 iidola ezigidi babesesichengeni somlilo, bebonakalisa i ubuqatha bomlilo wehlathi.
Ukukhutshwa kwemililo kugqithise Izigidi ezingama-8.000 zeetoni zeCO2, malunga ne-10% ngaphezu kwe-avareji ukususela kwi-2003, eqhutywe yiziqephu ezingavamile eMzantsi Melika naseCanada; ilizwe lokugqibela amatyathanga kunyaka wesibini kunye ngaphezu 1.000 billion iitoni ezikhutshwayo, kwaye idatha ibonisa indlela Umsi wemililo yehlathi iguqula umgangatho womoya.
IBolivia irekhode irekhodi layo lenkulungwane nge Izigidi ezingama-700 zeetoni zeCO2 eyayanyaniswa nemililo egqithisileyo, enetotali ephezulu ngokungaqhelekanga ebonwe kumazwe aliqela eBrazil naseVenezuela, kunye nakumazwe angama-20 eGuyana, ePeru, eSuriname nase-Ecuador. KwiPantanal yaseBrazil nakwihlathi elomileyo laseChiquitano eBolivia, iindawo ezitshileyo zaziphindwe kathathu kunesiqhelo kwaye ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo kunyuke ngokuphindwe kathandathu umyinge.
ELos Angeles, imililo kaJanuwari yabangela Ngama-30 abantu ababhubhileyo, banyanzelise ukufuduka kwabantu abayi-150.000, batshabalalisa ubuncinane amakhaya angama-11.500 kwaye bashiya ilahleko yezoqoqosho eqikelelwa. 140.000 iidola ezigidi.
Ezinye iimpembelelo eziphawulekayo ziquka ukufa kwabantu kumazwe aliqela: Nepal (100), uMzantsi Afrika (34), i-Ivory Coast (23), iPortugal (16), iTurkey (15) neKhanada (2), ebonisa ubungakanani bemeko yengxaki kunye neendleko eziphezulu zoluntu.
Kutheni zivutha ngakumbi: imozulu, amafutha kunye nokusetyenziswa komhlaba
Ukufudumala akudali nje iimeko zemozulu ezithandwa ngumlilo; ikwatshintsha izinga lokukhula kohlaza, ukuqokelela amafutha ethanda ukusasazeka ngokukhawuleza kwemililo xa iziqendu ezomileyo nezishushu zifika.
Uhlalutyo lufumene ixesha elimanzi ngokungaqhelekanga leenyanga ze-30 e-California eyandisa ukukhula kwe-biomass; ehambelana nayo imeko yome kakhulu kwaye ishushu NgoJanuwari, "iimpawu" ezigqibeleleyo zomlilo omkhulu zanikezelwa.
Kwi-Amazon kunye neCongo, i ukoma okumangalisayo kwamahlathi kunye nemigxobhozo ivumele amadangatye ukuba aqhubele phambili ngesantya esikhulu kunye noluhlu, ukukhulisa umonakalo wendalo kunye nokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni.
Ulawulo lommandla nalo lunobunzima: ukuncitshiswa kokhuselo lwendalo, utshintsho oluthile lokusetyenziswa komhlaba kunye nokugawulwa kwamahlathi kunokuqinisa ukuqhubeka kwamafutha kunye nokwandisa umngcipheko wemililo eyingozi ngamaxesha anzima, ngoko ke amanyathelo abuyisele amahlathi emva komlilo zingundoqo.
Yintoni iingcali ezicelayo kunye nendlela yokulungiselela
Amaqela enzululwazi abongoza amazwe ukuba ngokukhawuleza ukunciphisa ukukhutshwa iigesi zegreenhouse kunye nokukhawulezisa ukuziqhelanisa nehlabathi elifudumeleyo, elinomlilo elijonge kwiCOP30, kunye nokukhuthaza imigaqo-nkqubo uthintelo lomlilo wehlathi.
Amanyathelo okunciphisa nokulungela abandakanya ukucutha ukugawulwa kwamahlathi, faka iindawo zokutshisa ezimiselweyo kwiindawo ezifanelekileyo, ukususa izakhiwo kwiindawo ezinomngcipheko omkhulu, ukuqinisa ukunqanda umlilo, ukubuyisela imigxobhozo kunye nokuphucula iinkqubo zokulumkisa kwangethuba kunye nokubhaqwa, kunye namaphulo okunciphisa imililo eyenzeka ngengozi.
Uluntu lwenzululwazi lugxininisa ukuba sisenexesha lokuthatha amanyathelo Ukuthintela ukunyuka kwemililo emikhulu, ukudibanisa i-decarbonization kunye nolawulo olungcono lomhlaba kunye nesicwangciso esisekelwe kumngcipheko wedolophu kunye neendawo zasemaphandleni.
Idatha yeli xesha lonyaka, eneendawo ezitshabalalisayo ezingazange zibonwe ngaphambili, ukukhutshwa okunamandla kunye Iincopho zeengozi ezinxulunyaniswa nembalela nobushushu obugqithisileyo, ukuqinisa umqondiso wemozulu kunye nesidingo semigaqo-nkqubo enqwenelekayo yokuthintela, ukulungelelanisa kunye nokunciphisa ukukhutshwa.
