Icwangciselwe ukuba iqhubeke ukusuka nge-30 kaNovemba ukuya kuDisemba 12, 2023, iNgqungquthela yeMozulu, ekwaziwa ngokuba yiCOP28, iya kuqhubeka kwisixeko saseDubai, esikwiUnited Arab Emirates. Nangona kunjalo, ukhetho lwale ndawo luye lwaba ngumxholo wempikiswano ngenxa yesimo selizwe njengomvelisi omkhulu weoli kunye negesi. I Ingqungquthela yemozulu yeCOP28 ngo-2023 Iza kuholwa nguSultan Ahmed Al Jaber, uMphathiswa wezoShishino kunye neTekhnoloji ePhambili ye-Emirates kunye ne-CEO yeNkampani yeOli yeSizwe yase-Abu Dhabi.
Kweli nqaku siza kukuxelela yonke into ekufuneka uyazi malunga nengqungquthela yemozulu ye-COP28 ka-2023 kunye neziphumo zayo.
Ingqungquthela yemozulu yeCOP28 ngo-2023
U-Ivana Cvijanovic, unjingalwazi oncedisayo kuphando kwi-ISGlobal's Climate and Health programme kunye nombukeli we-intanethi wale ngqungquthela, uvakalisa amathandabuzo akhe: "Ngokwam, ndiyathandabuza." Uzisa elubala iinkxalabo malunga nababuki zindwendwe kunye nokuzibandakanya kwabaququzeleli kwishishini leefosili. Ngaphandle koko, ibonisa inani eligqithisileyo labameli beli shishini eliya kubakho, ekunzima ukulilungisa.
Ngokutsho kukaFernando Valladares, umphandi weCSIC kunye neengcali malunga nemiphumo yokutshintsha kwemozulu kwi-ecosystems, ukulindela kwiNgqungquthela yamaQela (COP) ihlala iphezulu, kwaye oku akunjalo. Oku kuyinyani ngakumbi njengoko inokuba lithuba lokugqibela lokuphepha ukugqitha kwimida eyingozi yokufudumala kuluntu. Ngaphandle koku, iValladares iyaqonda ukuba abo baye bazimasa ii-COP ezininzi bayazi ukuba kunzima, phantse akunakufikelelwa okanye akunakufane kwenzeke ukuba uninzi lwezi minqweno zibe yinyaniso.
Ukusukela nini isikhumbuzo se-COP kwaye iiinishiyali zimele ntoni?
Igama elithi COP limele iNkomfa yeMozulu yeZizwe eziManyeneyo yamaQela. INgqungquthela yeNkqubo-sikhokelo yeZizwe eziManyeneyo ngoTshintsho lweMozulu (CNMUCC) linoxanduva lokuqhuba le nkomfa njengebhunga lolawulo eliphambili. Le ndibano yamkelwa ngokusesikweni eNew York, eUnited States, ngowe-1992, yaza yaqalisa ukusebenza kwiminyaka emibini kamva, ngowe-1994. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, iye yamkelwa ngamaqela ali-198, kuquka amazwe ali-197 neEuropean Union.
Inkomfa yama-28 yamaQela, efinyeziweyo njenge-COP, ithetha ukuba le yintlanganiso yamashumi amabini anesibhozo yale nkomfa. Intlanganiso yokuqala yaqhutyelwa eBerlin ngowe-1995. Ezi nkomfa zibanjwa minyaka le, ngaphandle kuka-2020, ngenxa yobhubhane. Eyona njongo iphambili yezi ntlanganiso kukuba amazwe asebenzisane kwaye athathe amanyathelo okuphumeza iinjongo zemozulu ezichazwe kwiSivumelwano saseParis. Esi sivumelwano kwafikelelwa kuso ngexesha le-COP21 eParis ngowama-2015 kwaye siphunyezwa yiNgqungquthela yeNkqubo-sikhokelo yeZizwe eziManyeneyo ngoTshintsho lweMozulu, ekwaziwa ngokuba yi-UNFCCC.
Iinjongo zengqungquthela yemozulu yeCOP28 ngo-2023
Enye yeenjongo eziphambili zeSivumelwano saseParis kukwenza uvavanyo lokuqala lwehlabathi, nokwaziwa ngokuba yi-“Global Stocktake”, evavanya inkqubela eyenziweyo ekuphumezeni iinjongo zemozulu. Olu balo lwesitokhwe luquka umjikelo wophononongo ofuna uvandlakanyo lokuphunyezwa kwesivumelwano, uchaza umgama osele uhanjiwe kwiinjongo zaso ezintathu zexesha elide. Ezi njongo Zibandakanya uphononongo olubanzi lobume besivumelwano rhoqo emva kweminyaka emihlanu, ukuqala ngo-2023.
Injongo kukunqanda ukunyuka kobushushu beplanethi bungabi ngaphezu kwe-2 ºC xa kuthelekiswa namanqanaba exesha laphambi koshishino. Injongo ikwakukulwa ukuthintela ukufudumala kwehlabathi ukuba kungagqithi kwi-1,5 ºC.
Injongo kukukhulisa amandla okuziqhelanisa neziphumo ezingathandekiyo zokutshintsha kwemozulu kwaye, kwangaxeshanye, kukhuthazwe ukuphuculwa kokumelana nemozulu kunye nophuhliso zinempembelelo encinci kukukhutshwa kwerhasi yegreenhouse emoyeni.
Ukuqinisekisa ukuhambelana kweentengiselwano zemali, kunyanzelekile ukuba kuthathwe imodeli yophuhliso ekwazi ukumelana nemozulu kunye nokukhutshwa okuphantsi. Ukubonisa izicwangciso zabo zemozulu, okanye iNationally Determined Contributions (NDC), amazwe kufuneka asebenzise iGlobal Balance Sheet. Le nkqubo kufuneka yenzeke rhoqo emva kweminyaka emihlanu kwaye ifuna amazwe ukuba ahlole ii-NDC zawo kwicala eliya phezulu.
Umjikelo wophononongo, owaziwa ngokuba yiGlobal Stocktake, ufakwe kwiSivumelwano saseParis. Lo mjikelo wophononongo ufuna ukuba kuvandlakanywa ubume bokuphunyezwa kwesivumelwano rhoqo emva kweminyaka emihlanu, ukuqala ngo-2023.
Ngaphaya koko, i-COP28 imisele iinjongo zokuphuhlisa inkqubo ejolise ekudambiseni iimpembelelo zokutshintsha kwemozulu, eyona njongo yokugcina ukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu ehlabathi kumda we-1,5ºC. Le nkqubo kwakhona iza kuquka ukumiselwa komgomo wokuziqhelanisa nemozulu yehlabathi kunye nenjongo yezemali yemozulu, eya kuthi ibandakanye izivumelwano zemali zelahleko nomonakalo ezathi zaqinisekiswa kwi-COP27 eyayibanjelwe eSharm El Sheik, eYiputa. Eyona njongo yale ngxowa-mali kukubonelela ngoncedo kwabo bajongene nefuthe lokutshintsha kwemozulu abangenakuzifikelela.
USultan Al Jaber uqikelela ukuba ukufezekisa iinjongo zeSivumelwano saseParis, amazwe asakhulayo kunye asakhulayo. Kuya kufuneka bakhusele ngaphezulu kwe-2,4 yezigidi zezigidi zeedola kutyalo-mali lonyaka kumalinge anxulumene nemozulu ngo-2030.
Sifike ngexesha?
Ngaba kusenokwenzeka ukufezekisa injongo yokunciphisa ukunyuka kobushushu ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-1,5ºC? Kuye kwacaca ukuba idatha ekhoyo kunye nezibikezelo azibonisi umphumo omuhle. INkqubo yeZizwe eziManyeneyo yokusiNgqongileyo (i-UNEP) ipapashe iNgxelo yeGap ye-Emissions yamva nje, elumkisa ngokucacileyo ukuba izivumelwano zangoku phantsi kweSivumelwano saseParis azanelanga. Ingxelo ityhila ukuba isijikelezi-langa sethu sibheka phambili ukunyuka kobushushu obuyintlekele phakathi kwe-2,5 kunye ne-2,9°C ngaphezu kwamanqanaba angaphambi koshishino kule nkulungwane.
Ukulandela indlela ye-2ºC, ukukhutshwa kwerhasi yegreenhouse kuya kufuneka yehle ngama-28% ngo-2030, okusele kuyiminyaka esixhenxe kuphela. Kungenjalo, kuba Ukulandela indlela ye-1,5ºC, oku kuncipha kuya kufuneka kube kukhulu ngakumbi, kufikelele kuma-42%.
Ngokutsho kukaNobhala Jikelele weZizwe eziManyeneyo, u-António Guterres, ukufikelela kwinjongo yokunciphisa ukufudumala kwehlabathi kwi-1,5ºC kusenokwenzeka. Nangona kunjalo, le njongo ifuna ukupheliswa konobangela wengxaki yemozulu: amafutha efosili. Ngaphaya koko, utshintsho olungenamkhethe nolungenamkhethe kwimithombo yamandla ahlaziyekayo luyimfuneko.
Ndiyathemba ukuba ngolu lwazi unokufunda ngakumbi malunga nengqungquthela yemozulu ye-COP28 ka-2023 kunye neempawu zayo.