Esi siVumelwano saseParis sijolise ekunciphiseni ukukhutshwa kwegesi egreenhouse evela kuwo onke amazwe angamalungu ukulwa nokutshintsha kwemozulu. Ukuze wenze oku kufuneka kuthintele ukunyusa amaqondo obushushu aphakathi kwe-2 ° C.
Iqela labaphandi abavela kwiSebe le-Applied Economics kunye ne-Energy, Economics kunye neQela leDynamics Group yeDyunivesithi yaseValladolid (UVa) (eSpain) ihlalutye izindululo zamazwe angama-188 kwiNkomfa yeMozulu yokugqibela yaseParis (COP21) , ekunciphiseni ukukhutshwa kwegesi. Ngaba uyafuna ukwazi iziphumo zolu phando kunye nemeko esilindeleyo?
Injongo yesiVumelwano saseParis
Abaphandi abaye bahlalutya izindululo zokunciphisa ukungcola baye ba lumkisa ukuba, kwimeko ethembekileyo apho zonke izindululo ziyafezekiswa, amaqondo obushushu aya kunyuka phakathi kwe-3 kunye ne-4 degrees ngo-2050. Ngamanye amagama, iinzame zesiVumelwano saseParis, njengoko zinjalo ngoku, azonelanga ukuthintela ukutshintsha kwemozulu kunye notshintsho olungenakuguqulwa kwindalo yesijikelezi-langa.
Kuluntu lwenzululwazi, iidigri ezimbini ezonyukayo kubushushu obumgangatho wehlabathi sisithintelo esiqinisekileyo kwezona nguqu zinkulu zinokwenzeka. Ukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu ayilandeli iphethini yomgca, kodwa ibonakalisa kwaye ukusuka kumzuzu ogqityiweyo, ezinye iindlela ziya kwenziwa eziza kubangela oku kunyuka kuphakame nangaphezulu. Eli xesha linokuthi xa umkhenkce oseNyakatho Pole unyibilike ekugqibeleni, i-albedo yoMhlaba iya kutshintsha, kwaye iilwandle ziyakufumana ubushushu obungaphezulu, zibangele ukuba amaqondo obushushu anyuke ngokukhawuleza.
Ukuze bangafikeleli kunyuko lwamaqondo obushushu aphakathi anokubangela utshintsho olungenakulungiseka kwiplanethi, onke amazwe abonisiwe KuZwelonke kugqityiwe Igalelo elilindelekileyo. Ezi zizicwangciso zokusebenza ezahlukileyo ezichaza isixa sokukhutshwa kwerhasi eliza kuncitshiswa lilizwe ngalinye kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo eyakufuneka ukufezekisa loo njongo.
“Isivumelwano saseParis sishiya yonke into ezandleni zezindululo ezenziwe lilizwe ngalinye. Isuka kwimodeli yolawulo lwemozulu yamazwe amaninzi, njengoko yayinjalo iProtokholi yaseKyoto, kwenye ngokusekwe kubumbano kunye nokuzithandela, kuba ilizwe ngalinye linoxanduva lokwenza isindululo kodwa lingasilandeli, kwaye akukho qumrhu langaphandle liphetheyo lokulawula ukuthotyelwa kwalo ”, icacisa uJaime Nieto, umphandi e-UVa.
Uhlalutyo lwezindululo ngamazwe
Iqela lophando lihlalutye izindululo zokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwelizwe kwezopolitiko nakwimbono yezemali. Ngale ndlela banako Ukulinganisa ukwahluka kwezinto ezikhutshwayo kwilizwe jikelele eziya kubandakanya ukusetyenziswa kwezindululo kunye negalelo lazo kumlo ochasene notshintsho lwemozulu.
Nje ukuba izindululo zihlalutyiwe, kugqityiwe kwelokuba, ukuba zonke ziyafezekiswa (ngaphandle kwento yokuba azibopheleli), iqondo lobushushu lehlabathi iya kunyuka phakathi kwe-3 kunye ne-4 degrees, ukwanda okunokuphinda kabini ekujoliseni kokuqala kweedigri ezimbini kuthathwa ngokuba "kukhuselekile."
Kwelinye icala, kwisiVumelwano saseParis, izindululo ezingafihli nto, aziqwalaseli iimpembelelo ezinokubakho kuhlumo loqoqosho lwamazwe. Abaphandi babale izinto ezikhutshwayo zokwenyani eziza kubakho kwilizwe ngalinye ngo-2030, kuba esi siVumelwano sibeka isithuba salo nyaka. Ilizwe ngalinye liya kukhupha i-avareji ye-37,8% ngaphezulu kwisithuba se-2005-2015. I-China, okwangoku yeyona nto iphambili ikhupha i-GHG kunye ne-India, ekwindawo yesihlanu, baya kuba noxanduva phantse lwe-20% yokukhutshwa.
Iimodeli zenkqubo yeedynamics ziyasivumela ukuba sihlalutye okuza kwenzeka kwikamva ngokubhekisele kwiindlela kunye nokuvavanya iimeko ezahlukeneyo ngokwemigaqo-nkqubo ephuhlisiweyo. Kithina bekubalulekile ukuhlalutya esona sivumelwano sibalulekileyo ebesingesosiphelo kuqoqosho ikhabhoni encinci Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, isiVumelwano saseParis ”, uqukumbela uNieto.