Uhlalutyo olutsha lwamazwe ngamazwe lubonisa ukuba izibophelelo zemozulu zeSivumelwano saseParis zinokunciphisa kakhulu ukuba sesichengeni sobushushu obugqithisileyo kwiplanethi; ngokukodwa, Ngokwe-avareji, iintsuku ezingama-57 zamaqondo obushushu aphezulu kakhulu ziya kuthintelwa ngonyaka ngamnye. ukuba amazwe ayawagcina amadinga awo.
Ababhali bayalumkisa, nangona kunjalo, ukuba nangale nkqubela phambili sisekwindlela ecela umngeni: ilizwe lisingise ekufudumaleni okuphantse kube ngumngeni. 2,6°C kule nkulungwane ukuba iithagethi zangoku zifikelelwe, kude ne-1,5°C ekujoliswe kuyo kwaye kuseneempembelelo ezibalulekileyo kwimpilo, kuqoqosho nakwinkqubo yendalo.
Yintoni equkunjelwa luhlalutyo lwenzululwazi
Isifundo, silungiswe ngu Abaphandi abali-18 abavela kwiClimate Central kunye neWorld Weather Attribution, uthelekisa iindlela ezimbini: i-pre-Paris reference trajectory kufuphi ne-4 ° C kunye nenye kunye nezicwangciso zelizwe zangoku eziza kukhokelela malunga ne-2,6 ° C. Kwimeko yokuqala, iplanethi iya kujongana nomndilili we Iintsuku ezishushu ezili-114 ngonyakaKweyesibini, elo nani laliza kuncitshiswa ngeentsuku ezingama-57.
Ukulinganisa ubushushu obunxulumene nempilo, izazinzulu zichaza iintsuku ezifudumeleyo njenge I-10% ephezulu yobushushu bemihla ngemihla kwilizwe ngalinye phakathi kwe-1991 kunye ne-2020 kwaye yahlalutya iziqephu ezithandathu zakutsha nje zobushushu obugqithisileyo (iYurophu yaseMzantsi, eNtshona Afrika, i-Amazonia, i-Asia, i-Australia, kunye noMntla noMbindi Melika).
Iziphumo zibonisa ukuba iSivumelwano saseParis isebenza njenge brake inxalenye: inqanda ezinye iimeko ezinzima kakhulu, kodwa akwanelanga ngokwayo ukugcina ukufudumala "ngaphantsi" kwe-2 ° C ngaphandle kwemigaqo-nkqubo yokunciphisa amabhongo kunye nokukhawuleza.
Iingcali ezifana noFriederike Otto kunye noKristina Dahl bayayigxininisa loo nto isishumi ngasinye sesidanga siyabala: Umahluko obonakala umncinci uguqulela kumawaka-waka obomi obulahlekileyo kunye neempembelelo ezibalulekileyo zezoqoqosho, ngoko ke inyathelo elikhawulezileyo liyafuneka ngokukhawuleza.
Iziphumo zommandla: ngubani onciphisa ezona ntsuku zishushu ngakumbi?
Uncedo alwabiwa ngokulinganayo. Ngokohlalutyo, Imimandla yeTropiki kunye namazwe akufutshane ne-ikhweyitha aqokelela inzuzo enkulu ngenxa yokuba sesichengeni esikhulu ngoku kubushushu. Nangona kunjalo, zonke iindawo zehlabathi ziya kubona ukuncitshiswa okunokulinganiswa ukuba izicwangciso ziyaphunyezwa.
Nalu olunye uqikelelo lweentsuku zobushushu obugqithisileyo obunokuphetshwa ukuba ihlabathi lifudunyezwe nge-4°C, ukuba izibophelelo zangoku bezilinganiselwe kwi-2,6°C: IKenya (-82), iMexico (-77), iBrazil (-69), iYiputa (-36), i-Australia (-34), i-United States (-30), i-Indiya (-30), i-China (-29), i-United Kingdom (-29) ne-Spain (-27).
| Izwe | Iintsuku zobushushu obugqithisileyo zithintelwe |
|---|---|
| Kenya | 82 |
| Mekhsikho | 77 |
| Brasil | 69 |
| Yiputa | 36 |
| Ostreliya | 34 |
| EUnited States | 30 |
| Indiya | 30 |
| iTshayina | 29 |
| EUnited Kingdom | 29 |
| España | 27 |
Lo mahluko ubonakalisa indibaniselwano ye latitude, ijografi, ukuba sesichengeni kunye ukufudukela ezidolophini, izinto ezihlengahlengisa ukuphindaphinda kunye nokuqina kweziqephu zobushushu kwindawo nganye.
Ubushushu obugqithisileyo, eyona nto ibulalayo yemeteorology
Ubushushu obugqithisileyo bukude isiganeko somoya esibangela ukufa kwabantu abaninzi nyaka ngamnye kwihlabathi jikelele, ngamanani ngokolandelelwano lwamakhulu amawaka okufa kunye neendleko eziphezulu zezoqoqosho ezihlala zingabonakali xa zithelekiswa nezinye iintlekele.
Ukusukela ngo-2015, ithemometha yehlabathi inyuke ngokujikeleza 0,3 ° C, ulwando esele luguqulelwe kulo Iintsuku ezili-11 ezongezelelekileyo zobushushu obugqithisileyo ngonyaka kunye nokuba nokwenzeka okuphezulu kwamaza obushushu: ukuya kuthi ga kwizihlandlo ezilishumi eAmazon, abasithoba eMali naseBurkina Faso yaye phantse ngokuphindwe kabini eIndiya nasePakistan.
Uphononongo luqinisekisa ukuba, kwi-4 °C, amaza obushushu aya kuba phakathi kwe-3 kunye ne-6 °C ukufudumala kunye namathuba ama-5 ukuya kwangama-75 kunanamhlanje; kwi-2,6 ° C, ukunyuka kuya kuba ngu-1,5 ukuya ku-3 ° C kwaye amathuba anokuphindaphinda ngama-3 ukuya kuma-35 amaxesha.
Ubungqina budibana kwingcamango elula: yonke ishumi yesidanga sithintela umonakaloNokuba yimpilo yoluntu, imveliso yabasebenzi, ezolimo, okanye ukufumaneka kwamanzi, nakuphi na ukuncitshiswa kobushushu obugqithisileyo kuzisa uncedo olukhawulezileyo nolubambekayo.
Yintoni ekusafuneka yenziwe: ukuncitshiswa kunye nokuziqhelanisa
Uluntu lwezenzululwazi luyavumelana ngoxilongo: ukukhawulezisa ukuphuma kwioli, igesi kunye namalahle Yeyona ndlela isebenzayo yokunciphisa iingozi zobushushu, kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo eqinisa ukomelela kwezixeko kunye neenkqubo zempilo.
Ingxelo iqaphela inkqubela phambili, kodwa ayonelanga: malunga nesiqingatha samazwe sele unayo iinkqubo zokulumkisa ubushushu kwaye ubuncinane abangama-47 baphumeze izicwangciso zokusebenza, nangona inkxaso-mali kunye nokuphunyezwa zisahleli zilinganiselwe.
Phakathi kwemilinganiselo yohlengahlengiso eneziphumo ezingcono zezi: iinkqubo zokulumkisa kwangethuba, iiprothokholi ezithile zempilo, umthunzi ngakumbi kunye nemithi kwizixeko kunye nophuculo kwi ukusebenza kakuhle kwamandla ezindlini ukumodareyitha ubushushu bangaphakathi.
Isiphelo sokusebenza sicacile: ngemigaqo-nkqubo eyomeleleyo kunye nezibonelelo ezaneleyo, iinzuzo ziyandiswa. Nciphisa izinto ezikhutshwayo ngokukhawuleza kunye nokuhambisa uhlengahlengiso kwisikali kunokwenza umahluko phakathi kwencopho yobushushu obunyamezelekayo kunye neemeko ezinobungozi kwizigidi zabantu.
Uphando lucebisa ukuba iSivumelwano saseParis sele sinenxalenye yengxaki kwaye, ukuba sizalisekile, kuya kunqanda iintsuku ezingama-57 zobushushu obugqithisileyo ngonyaka ngokomndililiNangona kunjalo, ngaphandle kwenyathelo eliqinisekileyo lokunciphisa ukufudumala kunye nokomeleza ukuziqhelanisa, ikamva liya kuhlala lishushu kakhulu kukhuseleko kunye nentlalontle yoluntu oluninzi.
