Kumaxesha akutshanje, iinkanyamba ezinkulu Izaqhwithi zibonisa umkhwa oxhalabisayo: zivela kwangethuba kwikhalenda kwaye zivela ngokukhawuleza kakhulu. Isenzeko sezitshingitshane ezifikelela kuDidi 3 okanye ngaphezulu zenza imingeni emitsha kukhuseleko loluntu kunye noqikelelo lwemozulu, ngakumbi kubemi baselunxwemeni eMexico, kwiCaribbean, nakunxweme olusemazantsi eUnited States.
Lo nyaka awukhange ube ngaphandle kwaye imeko ye INkanyamba uEric uye wasebenza njengomzekelo ongumzekelo wale nyaniso intsha. Erick ikwazile ukuqinisa ukusuka kwisiphango seTropiki ukuya kwiNkanyamba ye-4 kwiiyure nje ezilishumi elinesibini, ngaphambi kokufika e-Oaxaca naseGuerrero njengenkanyamba enkulu ekuqaleni kukaLwesine ekuseni. Le ndlela yokuziphatha, ihlelwa njenge ukuqina ngokukhawuleza, ilumkisa uluntu lwenzululwazi kwaye iqaqambise iingozi zezi ziganeko, ezinokushiya indawo encinane kumagunya asekuhlaleni ukuba asabele.
Isenzeko sokuqina ngokukhawuleza kunye nexesha langoku
La ukuqina ngokukhawuleza Izaqhwithi ezifana noErick azisenanto yakwenza namntu. Into ebikade inqabile ngoku iya ixhaphaka kakhulu ngexesha lenkanyamba. Ityala le Otis ngo-2023-eyasuka kwisitshingitshane ukuya kwinkanyamba yesi-5 ngesiqingatha sosuku-okanye leyo Milton ngo 2024, zombini eMexico, krwela ubungakanani utshintsho. Iingcali ziyavuma ukuba amaqondo obushushu phezu kolwandle Amaqondo obushushu ashushu, ubukhulu becala abangelwa kukutshintsha kwemozulu, anika amandla afunekayo ukuze ezi nkqubo zomelele kwiiyure nje ezimbalwa.
Erick Yenzeka phakathi kuJuni, ngaphezulu kwenyanga ngaphambi kokuyilwa komyinge oqhelekileyo wezitshingitshane ezilobu bukhulu kwiMpuma yePasifiki, apho zaziya kubonakala khona ekupheleni kukaJulayi. I-NHC (i-National Hurricane Centre yase-USA) kunye ne-National Meteorological Service yaseMexico baye bagxininisa indima amanzi olwandle ashushu ngendlela engaqhelekanga y ukucheba umoya ophantsi kuphuhliso lwenkanyamba.
Uqikelelo olusemthethweni lwabonisa ukuba UErick wayeza kufikelela kudidi lwenkanyamba enkulu ngaphambi nje kokwenza impazamo. Le meko ekugqibeleni yenzeka, kwaye imimoya ngexesha lempembelelo yadlula i-220 km / h (XNUMX mph), ibangela izandyondyo zemvula, izandyondyo zemvula, kunye nomngcipheko wokudilika komhlaba kwiindawo ezinkulu zase-Oaxaca naseGuerrero.
2025 Uqikelelo lweXesha loNyaka: iAtlantiki kunye nePasifiki kwiSilumkiso
Las iiarhente ezifana NOAA kunye CSU Balindele ixesha elisebenzayo kakhulu le-2025, zombini kwiAtlantiki kunye nePasifiki. Kulindeleke ukuba kwiAtlantiki kubekho ukuya kuthi ga Izaqhwithi ezili-19 naphakathi 6 kunye ne-10 iinkanyambaKwezi, phakathi u-3 no-5 angaba phezulu (udidi 3 okanye ngaphezulu kwisikali seSaffir-Simpson). KwiPasifiki, kuqikelelwa inani elibalulekileyo, kunye 16 ukuya 20 iinkanyamba ezinokuthi zibe ziinkanyamba eziyingozi.
Ngokutsho kwengxelo yamva nje ye-CSU, amathuba okuba ubuncinane omnye inkanyamba enkulu ihlasele iUnited States ngexesha lonyaka lidlula i-50%, lidlula umyinge wembali. KwiCaribbean, kunokwenzeka ukuba kukhulu, ukufikelela 56%.
Izinto eziphambili: amaqondo obushushu olwandle kunye nokutshintsha kwemozulu
Las amaqondo obushushu aphezulu olwandle kunye neemeko ezingathathi hlangothi ze-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon ziyingcambu yalo msebenzi wanda. Ukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu kumphezulu weAtlantiki nakwiPasifiki kuthanda uphuhliso kunye nokuqiniswa ngakumbi kweenkqubo zetropikhi. Iingcali zigxininisa ukuba, nangona zingekho iinkanyamba ezingakumbi, ipesenti yabo bafikelela kwiindidi eziphambili iyanda.
Iingcali ezifana noBenjamín Martínez López kunye noChristian Domínguez, ovela kwi-UNAM, bagxininisa ukubaluleka kokubeka iliso amandla agcinwe elwandle: Okukhona ukufudumala okukhulu, kokukhona umthamo omkhulu wokondla kunye nokufikelela kumanqanaba embali yamandla.
Amagama kunye nezibalo zexesha lonyaka
Las uluhlu lwamagama Ngo-2025, uluhlu lube sele lulungile kuzo zozibini izitya, kwaye luya kusetyenziswa rhoqo emva kweminyaka emithandathu ngaphandle kokuba igama lithathiwe. KwiAtlantiki, amagama anjengoAndrea, uBarry, uChantal, noDexter aya kusetyenziswa, ngoxa kwiPasifiki, uAlvin, uBarbara, uCosme, uDalila noErick bebalasele. I-NOAA kunye ne-WMO ilumkisa ukuba ukuba ixesha lonyaka lisebenza ngokukodwa kwaye amagama aphelile, uluhlu olongezelelweyo luya kusetyenziswa.
El ukuqala kwesizini inokulahlekisa; eminye iminyaka iqala ngokuzolileyo ize ivelise iinkanyamba ezininzi ezinkulu, njengoko kubonwe ngo-2004, xa isaqhwithi sokuqala senzeka ngoJulayi kodwa saphela ngezitshingitshane ezininzi.
Iimpembelelo zakutsha nje kunye nolungelelwaniso lwamazwe ngamazwe
Amava ngeenkanyamba zakutshanje, ezifana noOtis, uJohn, uAgatha okanye uMilton, abalaselisa ukubaluleka kokuba nenkanyamba. iinkqubo zokubeka iliso, intsebenziswano yamazwe ngamazwe kunye nemigaqo yokhuseleko. U-Erick, nangona ekuqaleni yayinempembelelo eMexico, yayisoloko ibekwe esweni zii-arhente zase-US ngenxa yamandla ayo okuphazamisa Amandla omoya wengingqi.
Siyabonga ku Ulungelelwaniso phakathi kwee-arhente ezifana ne-NHC, NOAA, kunye neenkonzo zemozulu yaseMexico, ulwazi luhamba ngexesha langempela, luvumela ukuba kukhutshwe izilumkiso ezichanekileyo kunye nezicwangciso zongxamiseko zokulungelelaniswa, eyona nto ibalulekileyo ekunciphiseni umngcipheko kunye nomonakalo onokwenzeka.
Izifundo kwi ukuqina ngokukhawuleza kunye nokutshintsha kwemozulu Bafuna ukuphucula uqikelelo kunye namandla okuphendula kwezi zinto ziya zisiba yingozi kwaye ziqhelekile.
Kwiimeko ezinjalo ezisebenzayo, abasemagunyeni bacebisa abantu ukuba bahlale benolwazi kwaye ulandele iingcebiso ezisemthethweni. Ukulungiselela kunye nokulungelelanisa kubalulekile ukunciphisa impembelelo kunye nokukhusela ubomi kwezi meko.