La Ukuqikelela imvula kwimozulu eshushu Ibe yenye yezona ngxaki zinkulu kwisayensi yemozulu. Nangona namhlanje sisazi ngokuchanekileyo indlela ukufudumala kwehlabathi okwandisa ngayo umphunga wamanzi emoyeni, kusenzima kakhulu ukuqikelela ngokweenkcukacha ukuba kuza kuna phi, nini, kwaye ngobungakanani ubunzulu baloo mvula.
Iseti yezifundo zakutshanje ezikhokelwa yi IYunivesithi yaseOxford kunye ne-ETH ZurichNgokubandakanyeka okukhulu okuvela kumaziko aseYurophu, kubonisa ukuxilongwa okufanayo: ubuthathaka obukhulu beemodeli zemozulu zangoku abuyonto isisiseko yokufudumala, kodwa kukumelwa kwe iipateni zokujikeleza komoya okukhuluOko kukuthi, iinkqubo ezinkulu zomoya ezigqiba ukuba zeziphi iindawo ezimanziswayo nezizomileyo.
Inxalenye ephambili yenkqubo yemozulu engathathwa ngokupheleleyo ziimodeli
Ngokwale ngxelo, epapashwe kwijenali yesayensi indaloIimodeli ezisetyenziselwa ukubonakalisa imozulu yexesha elizayo zezi ukungayinaki into ebalulekileyo inkqubo yemozulu: indlela iipateni zomoya ezitshintsha ngayo, nto leyo eququzelela ukusasazwa kwemvula ngokweendawo. Oku kungamelwa kakuhle kunceda ukuchaza isizathu sokuba, kwinqanaba lengingqi, kusekho ukungaqiniseki okukhulu malunga nokuguquka kwemvula.
Iqela lihlalutye ngokweenkcukacha Iirekhodi zemvula yasebusika kwi-northern hemisphere phakathi kowe-1950 nowe-2022Ngokusekelwe kule datha yembali, bathelekise izinto abazibonileyo noko kuxelwa kwangaphambili ziimodeli zemozulu. Izigqibo zicacile: nangona iinkalo ze-thermodynamic (ukufudumeza kunye nokufuma okwandileyo) zilinganiswa kakuhle, iipateni zokujikeleza kwegazi ezinkulu ziphakamisa imibuzo emininzi.
Ababhali bahlula iintlobo ezimbini eziphambili zeenkqubo ezibumba imvula. Kwelinye icala, kukho iziphumo ze-thermodynamicOkunxulumene nobushushu: umoya ofudumeleyo ungabamba umphunga wamanzi omninzi, ngoko ke xa lina imvula, yenza njalo ngamandla. Kwelinye icala, kukho... iziphumo eziguqukayo, enxulumene nendlela umoya ohamba ngayo, imijelo yejethi, kunye neenkqubo zoxinzelelo oluphantsi noluphezulu ezihambisa izivuthuvuthu.
Ngokudibanisa iindlela eziphambili zezibalo kunye neemodeli zesimanje, iqela lophando likwazile ukwahlula ngokuchanekileyo okukhulu. yeyiphi inxalenye yotshintsho kwimvula olubangelwa kukufudumala okumsulwa nokulula Kwaye yintoni ebangelwa kukutshintsha kwendlela ejikeleza ngayo umoya? Kulapho ke ezi modeli zisilela khona: zibamba kakuhle ukuqina komjikelo wamanzi, kodwa azizalisi kwakhona utshintsho kwiipateni zomoya omkhulu ngokuchanekileyo okufanayo.
Olu mahluko aluyonto incinci. Enyanisweni, lunemiphumo ethe ngqo xa kufikwa ku lungiselela izikhukula, iimbalela, okanye utshintsho ekufumanekeni kwamanzikuba ziipateni ezitshintshayo ezithi ekugqibeleni zigqibe ekubeni zeziphi iindawo eziza kuchaphazeleka kakhulu yimvula enkulu kwaye zeziphi eziza kuchaphazeleka kukungabikho kwemvula.
Ityala laseMzantsi Yurophu: yingxenyana nje yokwenyani ephinda iveliswe
Iintsilelo zeemodeli zibonakala ngakumbi kwiindawo ezisengozini ezifana ne- Emazantsi eYurophuapho uluntu luxhomekeke kakhulu emanzini ngenxa yokudibana kwembalela ephindaphindayo kunye neziqendu zemvula enkulu. Ngokohlalutyo, iimodeli zikwazi ukulinganisa malunga I-10% yendlela ebonwayo ebusika imvula ehambelana notshintsho kwindlela ejikeleza ngayo umoya.
Elo nani li-10% libonisa ngokucacileyo ingxaki: nangona iimodeli ziluncedo ekuboneni umfanekiso opheleleyo wokufudumala kwehlabathi, xa kufikwa ekuchongeni ukuba kuza kwenzeka ntoni kwimvula kwiindawo ezithile ezifana I-Iberian Peninsula, e-Itali okanye eGrisiUkuthembeka kuncitshiswe kakhulu. Iingqikelelo zisenokungaphumeleli, zigqithise, okanye zingakwazi nokubamba ngokuchanekileyo indlela utshintsho olulindelweyo.
Enyanisweni, lo msantsa phakathi kokulinganisa kunye nenyani uguqulelwa ekubeni ubunzima kucwangciso lwamanzi nolwezolimoUmzekelo, abaphathi bamanzi kufuneka bazi ukuba imisele yemilambo iya kufumana imvula eninzi okanye encinci na kwiminyaka emininzi ezayo, kwiidama ezinkulu, kwiziseko zokunkcenkceshela, okanye kwiinkqubo zokunyanga amanzi amdaka. Xa isignali yomzekelo ichaza inxalenye nje yoko kwenzekileyo kwixesha elidlulileyo, ukwenza izigqibo zexesha elide kuba yingozi kakhulu.
Ukungaqiniseki okufanayo kuchaphazela ukuthintela iintlekeleIzikhukula ezisasazeke kulo lonke elaseYurophu ngo-2024 zisisikhumbuzo sokuba kunzima kangakanani ukuqikelela ngokuchanekileyo apho kuza kwenzeka khona imvula enkulu. Nangona iimodeli zibonisa umngcipheko okhulayo onxulunyaniswa nemozulu eshushu nenemvula, zihlala zisilela ekufumaneni indawo echanekileyo kunye nobukhulu bezi ziganeko.
Kwiindawo zeMeditera, apho zidibana khona ihlobo elomileyo kakhulu kwaye ukuwa okunokuba nemvula enkuluOku kungabikho kokuchaneka kuyabonakala ngokukodwa. Utshintsho kwinani kunye nendlela ezihamba ngayo iziphepho, kunye nendawo ezikuyo umsinga wejet, lunokumisela ukuba ixesha elithile lihlala liyinto nje yoyikiso okanye likhula libe yimeko yempembelelo enkulu kwezentlalo nakwezoqoqosho.
Ukwahluka kwendalo kunye nokusabela ekufudumaleni: umxube onzima
Olu phononongo luchonga izizathu ezibini eziphambili zokuba kutheni kunjalo Kunzima ukuqikelela imvula ngokwezinga lengingqi.Eyokuqala inento yokwenza nendalo yenkqubo yemozulu. Iipateni zokujikeleza komoya, ezifana I-Oscillation yoMntla weAtlantiki (NAO)Azihlali zizinzile: ziyaguquguquka ngokwendalo ngokuhamba kweminyaka okanye kwanamashumi eminyaka.
Oku kushukuma kwangaphakathi kunokwenza imaski okanye ukukhulisa uphawu lotshintsho lwemozuluUmzekelo, isigaba esithile se-NAO sinokuthanda ubusika obunemvula emantla Yurophu kunye nobusika obomileyo emazantsi, nokuba ukufudumala kwehlabathi kunjani. Xa oku kugqunywe ngumkhwa wexesha elide obangelwa kukukhutshwa kwegesi ezigcina ubushushu, ukwahlula oko kuhambelana nokuguquguquka kwendalo ukusuka koko kuya kutshintsho lwesakhiwo kuba yiphazili yokwenyani.
Into yesibini ekhankanywa zizazinzulu kukuba Iimodeli zemozulu zisenokuba aziyithatheli ngqalelo impendulo yezo ndlela zokujikeleza kwegazi ukufudumala okubangelwa ngabantu. Oko kukuthi, akukho ngxolo yendalo kuphela, kodwa nezixhobo ezisetyenziselwa ukufunda imozulu azibonisi ngokupheleleyo indlela iinkqubo zoxinzelelo kunye nemijelo yejethi ezizihlela ngayo xa iplanethi ishushu.
Lo mthombo umbini wokungaqiniseki wenza kube nzima kakhulu ukutolikwa kweendlela zokuna kwemvula. Kwiimeko ezininzi, akucaci nokuba ummandla othile uza kuba namava athile na. Kuza kuphela imvula incinci okanye incinci kwiminyaka ezayo, nto leyo ethintela ukuzithemba kwabalimi, abaphathi beengozi, kunye nabaphathi beziseko zophuhliso xa becwangcisa.
Ababhali bagxininisa ukuba le meko ayithethi ukuba ulwazi malunga ukufudumala kwehlabathi liphela kubuthathakaUbungqina bokuba umoya uyafudumala ngenxa yemisebenzi yabantu, ukwandisa ukufuma okukhoyo kunye nokunyusa amathuba eziganeko eziqatha, buqinile. Ingxaki ivela xa uzama ukuguqulela loo mfanekiso mkhulu kwiimpendulo ezineenkcukacha kwimibuzo efana nethi, "Kuza kwenzeka ntoni kanye kanye kwimvula kummandla wam?"
Impembelelo kwezolimo, amanzi, amandla kunye nolawulo lomngcipheko
Imvula ayisiyonto nje itshintshayo kwinkqubo yemozulu; igcina imozulu injalo ukususela ekuqaleni ukususela kwimveliso yokutya ukuya ekunikezelweni kwamanzi okuselaOku kuquka ukuveliswa kwamandla ombane ngamanzi kunye nempilo yeenkqubo zendalo. Ukungabikho kokuchaneka kokuqikelela imvula, ingakumbi kwiindawo ezifana neSpain okanye kumazantsi eYurophu iyonke, kunemiphumo ebonakalayo.
Kwicandelo lezolimo, ukungaqiniseki malunga neendlela zokuna kwemvula yinto ebalulekileyo ucwangciso lwezityalo, uyilo lwenkqubo yokunkcenkceshela, kunye nolawulo lomhlabaIindawo eziqhelene nemeko ethile yexesha lemvula nelomileyo zinokubona indlela etshintsha ngayo indlela imvula esasazwa ngayo, ixesha elide ngaphandle kwamanzi lilandelwa ziziganeko ezinzima kakhulu ezithintela ukungena komhlaba kwaye zikhuthaze ukukhukuliseka komhlaba.
Ngokuphathelele amandla, izityalo zamandla ombane ngamanzi kunye neminye imithombo yamandla avuselelekayo Zixhomekeke kwindlela yokuna kwemvula eqikelelekayo. Utshintsho olungalindelekanga kubungakanani kunye nexesha lonyaka lemvula lunokuphazamisa imveliso kwaye lunyanzelise ukuthembela kwezinye iindlela zokuxhasa, nto leyo echaphazela amaxabiso kunye nokhuseleko lwenkqubo yombane.
Ngaphezu koko, ukungakwazi ukucaca malunga nokuguquka kwemvula ngokwengingqi kwenza kube nzima ukuthintela iintlekele ezinxulumene nezikhukula kunye nembalelaIziqendu zakutshanje zemvula enkulu kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo zaseYurophu, kunye nembalela ende echaphazele iindawo ezinkulu zelizwekazi, zibonisa indlela ukusilela okuncinci okulindelweyo okunokuguqulela ngayo umonakalo omkhulu kwezoqoqosho nakwezentlalo.
Amaqhinga amatsha okuphucula uqikelelo lwemvula
Ngenxa yale meko, amaqela ophando ahlukeneyo aseYurophu akhuthaza iiprojekthi ukwandisa ukuthembeka koqikelelo lwemvulaOmnye wemisebenzi ephambili kukudibanisa iindlela zezibalo kunye neemodeli zemozulu kunye nemozulu ezinesisombululo esiphezulu, ezikwaziyo ukumela ngcono izakhiwo zomoya kunye nezivuthuvuthu.
Phakathi kwezi projekthi, le projekthi ivelele. PhefumlaLe nkqubo, ebandakanya izazinzulu ezivela kwiYunivesithi yaseOxford nase-ETH Zurich, kunye nezinye iziko, isebenzisa iimodeli zamanani eziphuhliswe yi Iziko laseYurophu leZibikezelo zeMozulu eziPhakathi (ECMWF)ezivumela ukulinganiswa okuneenkcukacha ngakumbi kwendlela yokuziphatha kokujikeleza komoya kunye nonxibelelwano lwayo notshintsho lwemozulu.
Injongo kukuphanda indlela umahluko kwiipateni zomoya ezinkulu ezichaphazela ngayo umngcipheko wembalela kunye nezikhukhula kwiindawo ezithile, kuquka neYurophu. Ukuze kwenziwe oku, idatha yokujonga evela kwiminyaka emininzi idityaniswe neemodeli ezinesisombululo esiphezulu, ukuze igalelo lokuguquguquka kwendalo kunye nokufudumala kwabantu liqondwe ngcono.
Okwangoku, amaqela afana nalawo akhokelwa ngumphandi U-Antje Weisheimer Basebenza kwiindlela ezintsha zokubeka imvula enkulu kunye nezixhobo zokunceda ukuguqulela uqikelelo lwemozulu lube lulwazi oluluncedo kwiinkqubo zesilumkiso kwangethuba. Ingcamango kukuba, nangona kungenakwenzeka ukuqikelela zonke iziqendu ngokweenkcukacha, kuya kwenzeka... nciphisa uluhlu lwamathuba iimeko ezahlukeneyo zemvula kwiindawo ezithile.
Abaphandi bagxininisa ukuba injongo yabo ayikokubuza iziseko zesayensi yemozulu, kodwa chonga apho iimodeli zisilela khona ukuze uziphuculeNjengoko ingcali yefiziksi uLei Gu esitsho, ngokudibanisa amaqhinga ahlukeneyo okuhlalutya kuye kwenzeka ukubonisa ukuba utshintsho lwemozulu sele lushiya uphawu lwalo kwiipateni zomoya omkhulu ezilawula imvula, nangona kusekho amathandabuzo malunga nobukhulu bempembelelo yaloo nto.
Ekugqibeleni, ubunzima bokuqikelela ngokuchanekileyo imvula kwimeko yotshintsho lwemozulu bubonisa ukuba, nangona kukho inkqubela phambili ekuboniseni, Kukho umda omkhulu wokungaqiniseki kwinqanaba lengingqiKumazwe aseYurophu anomdla kakhulu ekufumanekeni kwamanzi, oku kuthetha ukuba kufuneka kucwangciswe ngeemeko eziguquguqukayo, kuqiniswe uhlengahlengiso, kwaye kuqhutyekwe nokutyala imali kuphando oluvumela ukuphuculwa kwezibikezelo zemvula kunye nokuphucula ulawulo lweengozi ezinxulumene noko.
