IYurophu ishushu ngesantya esimangalisayo Kwaye oku kufudumala akupheleli nje ehlotyeni elishushu ezixekweni: kukwaguqula neArctic, iMeditera, imilambo, amahlathi kunye neelwandle. Oko kwakubonakala ngathi zizinto ezingaqhelekanga—amaza obushushu angapheliyo, imililo yasendle emikhulu, okanye ulwandle olushushu ngokungaqhelekanga—kuye kwaba yinxalenye yemozulu eqhelekileyo yelizwekazi, enefuthe ngqo impilo yethuuqoqosho kunye nendalo esixhomekeke kuyo.
Uhlalutyo lwamva nje luqukwe kwingxelo malunga Imeko yeMozulu eYurophu 2025Uphononongo oluququzelelwe yiZiko laseYurophu leZibikezelo zeMozulu eziPhakathi (ECMWF) kunye neWorld Meteorological Organisation (WMO) luveza umfanekiso oxhalabisayo kakhulu. Lo msebenzi, apho iingcali ezimalunga nekhulu zisebenzisene khona, uqinisekisa ukuba iYurophu lelona lizwekazi lishushu ngokukhawuleza emhlabeni kwaye impembelelo yalo ivakale ukususela [kumhla ongekhoyo]. Ukusuka kwiArctic ukuya kwiMeditera, idlula kwiinduli zomkhenkce, imilambo, iilwandle kunye neendawo eziphilayo zasemhlabeni nezaselwandle.
IYurophu, ilizwekazi elishushu ngokukhawuleza
Idatha evela kwingxelo ye-ESOTC ka-2025 iqinisekile.Ubuncinane i-95% yomphezulu waseYurophu irekhode amaqondo obushushu onyaka angaphezulu komndilili wemozulu. Lo asingonyaka owahlukileyo, kodwa kukuhlanganiswa komkhwa wokufudumala okuqhubekayo okunciphisa amaxesha obushushu obukhulu kunye nokwanda nokwanda kwamaxesha obushushu.
Ngokuphathelele izinto ezigqithisileyo, olu xwebhu lubonisa amaza obushushu embalini ummandla ongaphantsi kweArctic weFennoscandia (equka iNorway, iSweden, iFinland, iindawo ezithile zaseRashiya, kunye neKola Peninsula). Kangangeentsuku ezingama-21 ezilandelelanayo, amaqondo obushushu ayedlula ama-30°C, kwanangaphakathi kwiArctic Circle ngokwayo—into eyayibonakala ngathi yintsomi yesayensi kwiminyaka embalwa eyadlulayo. Ubuninzi be-34,9°C barekhodwa kwidolophu yaseNorway iFrosta.
Olu kunyuka kobushushu lunelinye icala, elingabonakaliyo kangako kodwa elinzulu ngokulinganayo: ukuncipha kweentsuku zomkhuhlane omkhuluMalunga nama-90% aseYurophu ayeneentsuku ezimbalwa zoxinzelelo lwengqele, nto leyo ethetha ukuba ubusika abuzange bube qatha kangako, iintsuku ezimbalwa ngaphantsi kwe-0°C kunye notshintsho olukhulu kwimijikelo yendalo, ezolimo kunye nemfuno yamandla yokufudumeza.
KwiKhomishini yaseYurophu, iingcali ezinje ngoDusan Chrenek, umcebisi omkhulu weDigital Green Transition kwiCandelo eliLawulayo leNtshukumo yeMozulu, zigxininisa ukuba uphawu lotshintsho lwemozulu eYurophu "alunakuphikiswa" kwaye ezi ziphumo zibalulekile. isilumkiso esicacileyo sokukhawulezisa uhlengahlengiso kunye nokunciphisaAsisathethi ngemeko yexesha elizayo, kodwa ngenyaniso eqinisekisiweyo ngokupheleleyo.
Indawo yokuphuma kwekhephu, umkhenkce kunye neengqaqa: iindawo ezibandayo kunye neArctic zibalulekile
Ukufudumala okukhawulezayo eYurophu kunemiphumo emibi kakhulu iinkqubo ezirhabaxa (ikhephu, umkhenkce, ii-glaciers, kunye nee-ice sheets). Ngo-2025, indawo egqunywe likhephu eYurophu ngoMatshi yayingaphantsi kwe-1,32 yezigidi zeekhilomitha zesikwere ngaphantsi komndilili, nto leyo ebonisa ukwehla kwe-31%. Le ndawo ilahlekileyo ilingana nobukhulu obudibeneyo beFrance, i-Itali, iJamani, iSwitzerland, kunye ne-Austria.
Iiglaciers kuzo zonke iindawo zaseYurophu zirekhode ukulahleka okukhulu kobunzima.I-Iceland ilahlekelwe yiqhwa okwesibini ngobukhulu ukusukela oko kwaqala iirekhodi, nto leyo eqinisekisa ukuncitshiswa okubanzi. KwiiAlps, kwiiPyrenees, nakwezinye iintaba, iqhwa liyaqhubeka nokurhoxa, linciphisa imithombo yamanzi egcinwe njengomkhenkce kwaye litshintsha ukuhamba kwemilambo namachibi.
I-ice sheet yaseGreenland nayo ayishiywanga: ngo-2025 ilahlekelwe malunga Iigigatoni ezingama-139 zomkhenkce (iitoni ezili-139.000 zeebhiliyoni), isixa esilingana nesinye nesiqingatha somthamo womkhenkce okhoyo kwiintaba zeqhwa ze-European Alps. Isentimitha nganye yokunyuka komgangatho wolwandle onxulunyaniswa nale lahleko ibeka abantu abamalunga nezigidi ezi-6 emngciphekweni wezikhukula zonxweme kwihlabathi liphela.
Imibutho efana ne-WMO igxininisa ukuba ikhephu nomkhenkce zidlala indima ebalulekileyo ngenxa isiphumo se-albedoNgokubuyisela imitha yelanga esibhakabhakeni, zinceda ekufudumaleni kancinci. Xa lo mphezulu umhlophe uphela, umhlaba omnyama kunye nolwandle zifunxa amandla angakumbi, ziqinisa ukufudumala kwisangqa esinzima ukumisa, ingakumbi kwiArctic nakwiintaba eziphakamileyo.
Abaphandi abafana noMaría José Sanz, umlawuli weBC3 (iBasque Centre for Climate Change Research), babonisa ukuba oku kulahlekelwa ngumkhenkce nekhephu kunemiphumo emibi kakhulu: kuyandisa umngcipheko wempilo ngenxa yoxinzelelo lobushushuZibeka uluntu esichengeni kwiziganeko ezigqithisileyo kwaye zibeka emngciphekweni amacandelo abalulekileyo ezoqoqosho, kuquka ukuveliswa kwamandla avuselelekayo axhomekeke kwiipateni zomoya, imitha yelanga kunye nokuhamba kwamanzi.
Ubushushu obugqithisileyo kumphezulu wolwandle: amaza obushushu olwandle kwiMeditera nakwiArctic
Ulwandle lufunxe malunga ne-90% yobushushu obugqithisileyo obuveliswa zigesi ezikhutshwa ngabantu ezibangelwa yi-greenhouse gas. Le thermal buffer iza ngexabiso: ngo-2025, ummandla wolwandle waseYurophu urekhode i- ubushushu obuphezulu bomphezulu wolwandle obuphakathi konyaka obakhe barekhodwa, ephawula iminyaka emine elandelelanayo yerekhodi.
Kule meko, IMeditera Igqame njengenye yezona lwandle zibuthathaka kakhulu. Phakathi kowe-1982 nowe-2018, ubushushu obuphakathi bomphezulu woLwandle lweMeditera Inyuke ngokuphindwe kathathu ngaphezu komndilili wehlabathi, ngesantya esiphantse sibe yi-0,4°C ngeshumi leminyaka. Olu nyuko oluqhubekayo luhambe kunye nokunyuka okuphawulekayo kwimvamisa, ubude, kunye nobukhali bamaza obushushu aselwandle.
Iifowuni amaza obushushu olwandle (WMO) ziixesha ezinde apho amaqondo obushushu olwandle aphezulu kakhulu kunesiqhelo ngelo xesha lonyaka. Zinokwenzeka kwiindawo ezininzi zolwandle, kwaye ukuphindaphindeka kwazo kuye kwanda kakhulu kwiminyaka engamashumi amabini edlulileyo. EYurophu, iMeditera yeyona ndawo ichaphazeleka kakhulu, nangona iziganeko eziqatha ziye zabhalwa kwiindawo zaseAtlantiki kufutshane nonxweme lwaseCantabrian lwaseSpain.
Ngowama-2025, kufutshane Ama-86% amanzi aseYurophu afumene amaza obushushu baselwandle ubuncinane kudidi "olunamandla", kwaye malunga nama-36% afikelele kumanqanaba aqatha okanye aqatha. Oku kufudumala kolwandle okungaqhelekanga akuchaphazeli nje kuphela iMeditera; iilwandle zaseArctic nezingqongileyo nazo zibonisa iimpawu zokufudumala okukhawulezileyo, okunefuthe kwiinkqubo zendalo zomkhenkce wolwandle kunye ne-boreal.
Impembelelo yamaza obushushu olwandle kwi-ecosystem, imozulu kunye nemisebenzi yabantu
Isiphumo esicacileyo samaza obushushu aselwandle ukwanda kokufa kwabantu abaninzi bezinto eziphilayo zaselwandleIintlobo zezilwanyana ezithambileyo (ezo zingakwaziyo ukuhamba) ezifana neekorali, iisponji, kunye neentlobo ezininzi ze-algae ezihlala ezantsi komhlaba zisengozini enkulu, njengoko zingenawo umda "wokubaleka" xa amanzi eshushu ngaphezu komlinganiselo wazo wokunyamezela.
El Ingxelo kaCopernicus malunga neMeko yeeLwandlekazi Ichaza indlela ukudibana kokufudumala kwemvelaphi yaseMeditera kunye neentlobo zeentlanzi ezihlaselayo zaselwandle okukhokelele ngayo kutshintsho olukhulu ekubunjweni kweendawo zaselwandle. Ezinye iintlobo zeentlanzi ziya kwiindawo ezipholileyo, ngelixa iintlobo ezivela kwezinye iindawo, ngamanye amaxesha ezihlaselayo, zivela, zitshintsha iiwebhu zokutya kunye neendlela zokuloba zemveli.
La maza obushushu elwandle nawo anxulunyaniswe nokwanda kwamathuba okuba Iziganeko zemozulu ezibi kakhulu njengeenkanyamba zaseMeditera, iziqendu zemvula enkulu, kunye nezivuthuvuthu ezinamandla ngakumbi. Xa amaza obushushu edibana emhlabeni naselwandle, umoya unokuqokelelana umswakama omninzi, nto leyo eyenza ubusuku obufudumeleyo bube mandundu kwaye kwenze kube nzima ngomzimba womntu ukuba aphinde aphile kubushushu basemini.
ESpain, ukongeza koko kwenzekayo kwiMeditera, kumacandelo e- ICentral Cantabrian Kuye kwabonwa amaza obushushu olwandle, nangona iindlela zokuphindaphindeka kunye nobukhali zingacacanga kangako kunakwiMeditera. Nangona kunjalo, ukuloba, ukhenketho lonxweme kwaye ukulima iintlanzi kuchaphazeleka ngakumbi kukuguquguquka kunye nobushushu obugqithisileyo bolwandle.
Iinkonzo ezinikezelwa yiCopernicus Marine Service zibalulekile ekujongeni la maza obushushu baselwandle. Ngokusebenzisa idatha ethile kunye neemveliso, kunceda ukuvavanya impembelelo yazo kwi iindawo ezikhuselweyo zaselwandle sele zixhasa izibophelelo zamazwe ngamazwe ezifana neeNjongo zoPhuhliso oluZinzileyo zeZizwe eziManyeneyo (ii-SDG), iHabitats Directive okanye uthungelwano lweendawo ezikhuselweyo zolwandle zengingqi.
Imbalela, imilambo ephantsi kakhulu kunye noxinzelelo lwamanzi olukhulayo
Utshintsho lwemozulu eYurophu alubonakali nje kuphela ngendlela yamaza obushushu kunye namaqondo obushushu aphantsi: lukwasemva ukonakala kwemithombo yamanzi okuxhalabisayoNgowama-2025, imilambo yaseYurophu irekhode ukuhamba kwamanzi okungaphantsi komndilili kwiinyanga ezili-11 kwezili-12 zonyaka, kwaye malunga ne-70% yeendlela zemilambo ibonise amanqanaba angaphantsi kwesiqhelo ngonyaka.
Ingxelo ngokwayo ibonisa ukuba unyaka ka-2025 wawungomnye weminyaka apho ukufuma komhlaba okuphantsi ukusukela ngo-1992Kwaye ngoMeyi ngaphezulu kwesiqingatha saseYurophu (malunga nama-53%) babejongene neemeko zembalela. Olu nxulunyaniswa lokunqongophala kwemvula, amaqondo obushushu aphezulu, kunye nomhlaba owomileyo kuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo zolimoukulima imfuyo, amashishini, kunye nokubonelela ngeenkonzo zasezidolophini.
Kwimeko yeSpain, imeko ibuthathaka kakhulu kumzantsi nasempuma we-peninsula, apho ukuya kuthi ga Iintsuku ezingama-50 ezongezelelweyo zoxinzelelo olukhulu lobushushunge-heat indices ezidlula i-32°C. Le meko yenza kube nzima ukusebenza ngaphandle, yonyusa imfuno yamanzi okunkcenkceshela, kwaye yomeleza uxinzelelo kwiindawo zokugcina amanzi kunye namanzi asele exinezelekile.
Ukuncipha kwekhephu kwiintaba zaseYurophu kunye nokurhoxa kweqhwa nako kuyayitshintsha indlela indlela yokuhamba komlamboOku kunciphisa igalelo lokunyibilika kwekhephu ehlotyeni kwaye kutshintsha iindlela zokufumaneka kwamanzi. Konke oku kuthetha ukuba kukho ukhuphiswano olukhulu phakathi kokusetyenziswa (kwezolimo, ukusetyenziswa kwezixeko, imveliso yombane wamanzi, ukugcinwa kwenkqubo yendalo, ukuhambahamba emilanjeni) kunye nesidingo socwangciso olungcono lolawulo lwamanzi.
Nangona ingxelo ye-ESOTC ka-2025 ibonisa ukuba imvula enkulu kunye nezikhukula, ngokubanzi, ayisasazeki kangako kunakwiminyaka yakutshanjeOlu hlobo lwesiganeko semozulu luqhubekile nokuchaphazela amawaka abantu kumazwe ahlukeneyo aseYurophu. Ngamanye amazwi, ixesha elide lembalela litshintshana neziqendu zemvula enamandla kakhulu kwixesha elifutshane, nto leyo eyandisa umngcipheko wokunqongophala kwamanzi kunye nezikhukula ezikhawulezileyo.
Imililo yamahlathi, uxinzelelo lobushushu kunye nempilo
Ubushushu obugqithisileyo kunye nembalela ende ziye zabangela imisebenzi yomlilo wasendle engazange ibonwe ngaphambili EYurophu, malunga neehektare ezili-1.034.550 zatsha ngo-2025, indawo enkulu kunazo zonke ezakha zabhalwa kweli lizwekazi, enempembelelo enkulu kwindalo, kwezoqoqosho nakwezentlalo.
ISpain yayililinye lamazwe achaphazeleke kakhulu, lifikelela kwi- isiqingatha sezinto ezikhutshwayo ezinxulunyaniswa nemililo aqoshwe eYurophu ngaloo nyaka. Amazwe asembindini nakumntla Yurophu, ngokwesiko awayengachaphazeleki kakhulu kwimililo emikhulu, efana neJamani, iUnited Kingdom, neNetherlands, nawo aqoshelise iziqendu ezinzima ngokungaqhelekanga.
Amaza obushushu ahlala ixesha elide, emhlabeni naselwandle, ayandisa uxinzelelo lobushushu ebantwini kwaye kwandisa iingozi zempilo. Ukufa akupheleli nje ekunyukeni ngeentsuku ezishushu kakhulu, kodwa nezifo zokuphefumla nezentliziyo nazo ziyanda, kwaye iimeko zokusebenza zabo basebenza ngaphandle okanye kwiindawo ezingenamoya opholileyo owaneleyo ziyachaphazeleka.
Ngaphezu koko, xa amaza obushushu aselwandle edibana namaza obushushu angaphezulu, amaqondo obushushu asebusuku kunye nokufuma okuthelekisekayo kuyanyuka, nto leyo eyenza kube nzima ngakumbi... ukuphumla kunye nokuchacha komzimbaOlu dibaniso lunokubangela ubushushu obuninzi, ukudinwa okwandileyo, kunye noxinzelelo kwiinkqubo zonyango, ingakumbi kumaqela asengozini afana nabantu abadala, abantwana, abagula kakhulu, okanye abo bahlala kwizindlu ezingasebenzi kakuhle.
Ingxelo ye-ESOTC ka-2025 igxininisa ukuba utshintsho lwemozulu lutshintsha ukuphindaphindeka, ubunzulu kunye nobude beziganeko zemozulu embi kakhulu (amaza obushushu, imbalela, imililo, izivuthuvuthu), nto leyo ebangela ukuba kuqiniswe iinkqubo zokulumkisa kwangethuba, izicwangciso zokukhusela uluntu, kunye namaqhinga okuziqhelanisa neemeko zasezidolophini (umthunzi, iindawo eziluhlaza, umoya ongenisa umoya ezidolophini, iindawo zokuhlala zemozulu, njl).
Ukwahlukahluka kwezinto eziphilayo kuphantsi kolawulo: iinkqubo zendalo zasemhlabeni nezaselwandle ziphantsi koxinzelelo
Ukwahlukana kwezinto eziphilayo yintsika ebalulekileyo kwikamva elizinzileyo, kodwa ke Utshintsho lwemozulu lube ngomnye wemiba ephambili yokuwohloka komgangatho EYurophu, imbalela engapheliyo, imililo yamahlathi enamandla ngakumbi, ubushushu obugqithisileyo emhlabeni naselwandle, kunye notshintsho kwiindlela zemvula kubangela ukulahleka kweendawo zokuhlala, ukuphazamiseka kwemijikelo yezinto eziphilayo, kunye nokufuduka okanye ukunyamalala kweentlobo ezininzi zezilwanyana.
Kwindalo yaselwandle, iMeditera isebenza njengelebhu yoko kunokwenzeka kwezinye iilwandle: ukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu kunye namaza obushushu olwandle kuye kwanceda ukufika nokusasazwa iintlobo zezilwanyana ezingaqhelekanga nezihlaselayo, ezikhuphisana neentlobo zendalo, zitshintsha imixokelelwane yokutya kwaye zitshintshe iinkonzo zendalo ezibonelelwa zezi nkqubo zendalo (ukuloba, ukhuseleko lonxweme, ukubanjwa kwekhabhoni, ukhenketho, njl.njl.).
Emhlabeni, imililo enamandla ingatshintsha uhlobo lwezityalo ezibalaseleyo, iguqule amahlathi abe yimihlaba eyomileyo okanye ingca eyonakeleyo ukuba ukuphazamiseka kuphindaphindwa rhoqo. Ubushushu obugqithisileyo kunye nokungabikho kwamanzi kuyayichaphazela imeko yemozulu. amandla amahlathi okusebenza njengezinki zekhabhoni kwaye zonyusa umngcipheko wazo kwizinambuzane, izifo, kunye nezivuthuvuthu.
Isazi ngale meko, iManyano yaseYurophu iye yamkela iinjongo ezibophelelayo Buyisela ubuncinane i-20% yeenkqubo zendalo zomhlaba nezolwandle phakathi kwangoku nowama-2030, ngenjongo yokubuyisela zonke iindawo eziphilayo ezonakeleyo ngo-2050. Ezi njongo zihlanganiswe kwimigaqo-nkqubo yemozulu kunye neentlobo ngeentlobo zezinto eziphilayo, zifuna ukusebenzisana phakathi kokunciphisa, ukuziqhelanisa nokulondolozwa kwendalo.
Amagosa avela kwi-WMO nakwi-ECMWF agxininisa ukuba ingxelo ye-State of the Climate in Europe ibonisa, ngedatha eqinileyo kunye nohlalutyo, indlela utshintsho lwemozulu oluchaphazela ngayo. izinto eziphilayo ezahlukeneyo, uqoqosho, kunye nempilo yoluntuBakwagxininisa ukubaluleka kokuqhubeka nokuqinisa ukujongwa koMhlaba ngeesathelayithi, iinethiwekhi zokulinganisa, kunye neekhompyutha ezinkulu zokuqikelela amanani ukuze zibe nolwazi oluthembekileyo oluza kukhokela izigqibo zomgaqo-nkqubo.
Amaza obushushu, utshintsho lwamandla kunye nesidingo sokulungiswa ngokukhawuleza
Ngenxa yesi simo, iindaba ezimnandi zezokuba iYurophu yenza inkqubela phambili ukususwa kwekhabhoni kwinkqubo yakho yamandlaNgowama-2025, amandla avuselelekayo anegalelo elimalunga ne-46,4% yombane owenziweyo kweli lizwekazi, amandla elanga edlala indima ebaluleke ngakumbi, efikelela kwirekhodi ye-12,5% yomxube wombane.
Nangona kunjalo, le nkqubela ayanelanga ukuphelisa izinga lokufudumala elibonwayo lodwa. Iingcali ezinjengoSamantha Burgess, igosa lezobume bemozulu kwi-ECMWF, zigxininisa ukuba umfanekiso ovezwe kwingxelo ye-ESOTC ka-2025 ungowokwenyani. "Ayinamsebenzi" ukuba amanyathelo awakhawuleziswangaUtshintsho oluya kumandla acocekileyo kufuneka luhambisane nohlengahlengiso olukhawulezayo nolusekelwe kwisayensi kuzo zonke iindawo: ezidolophini, kwezolimo, kwezoshishino, elunxwemeni, nakwimpilo yoluntu.
Ukutshintsha kweemeko zemozulu nako kuyayichaphazela imeko-bume ngokwayo Imveliso yamandla ahlaziyekayoUkutshintsha komoya, utshintsho kwimitha yelanga, kunye notshintsho ekuhambeni komlambo kutshintsha ukusebenza okulindelekileyo kweefama zomoya, ukufakelwa kwe-photovoltaic, kunye neziseko zombane zamanzi, ngoko ke iinkqubo zamandla kufuneka zibe bhetyebhetye kwaye ziqine ngakumbi.
Amaphulo afana nenkqubo yeCopernicus, eququzelelwa yiKhomishini yaseYurophu, abonelela ngedatha esemgangathweni ophezulu malunga utshintsho lwemozulu, ukwakheka komoya, izikhukula kunye nemililoIZiko laseYurophu leZibikezelo zeMozulu eziPhakathi, elilawula iCopernicus Climate Change Service kunye neAtmospheric Monitoring Service, lisebenzisa iisupercomputers eziphambili kunye nenye yezona ndawo zinkulu zokugcina idatha yemozulu ehlabathini, nto leyo evumela inkqubela phambili "kwiiwele zedijithali zoMhlaba" ngaphakathi kwephulo le-EU leDestination Earth.
Zonke ezi zixhobo zinenjongo efanayo: ukunceda oorhulumente, amashishini kunye nabemi ukuba benze izigqibo izigqibo ezinolwazi kwimeko esele itshintshileKwimeko ethile yamaza obushushu kwiMeditera nakwiArctic, oku kuthetha ukuqinisa iinkqubo zokulumkisa kwangethuba, ukulungisa iziseko zonxweme ukuze zihambelane nokunyuka kwamanqanaba olwandle, ukuyila ngokutsha izicwangciso zokusetyenziswa komhlaba, kunye nokukhusela iinkqubo zendalo zaselwandle nezasemhlabeni ezisenokusebenza njengomqobo wendalo nxamnye neempembelelo.
Ubungqina obuqokelelwe yi-WMO, i-ECPMPM kunye namaziko amaninzi ophando aseYurophu buyenza icace into yokuba amaza obushushu kwiMeditera nakwiArcticAmaqondo obushushu arekhodiweyo emhlabeni naselwandle, ukulahleka ngokukhawuleza kwekhephu nomkhenkce, ukonakala kwemilambo, ukwanda kwembalela, kunye nemililo emikhulu ayidluli kwiingxaki ezingaqhelekanga, kodwa ziimpawu zemeko entsha yemozulu. Iingcali ziyavuma ukuba impendulo ikukunciphisa ngokukhawuleza ukukhutshwa kwegesi, ukukhawulezisa utshintsho lwamandla, ukuqinisa amandla ethu okuziqhelanisa, kunye nokubeka phambili ukubuyiselwa kwezinto eziphilayo njengomhlobo wethu ongcono wokuhlala nemozulu engasasebenziyo ngaphambili.
