Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, Uqikelelo lwemozulu luye lwenzeka inguquko yokwenyani ngenxa yophuhliso lwemifuziselo emitsha yenzululwazi ebandakanya ubukrelekrele bokwenziwa.Iziko laseYurophu loPhando lweMozulu oluPhakathi (ECMWF) lithathe inyathelo eliqinileyo ngokufika I-AIFS ENS, inkqubo yokuqalisa enokwenzeka echaza ngokutsha indlela uqikelelo lwemozulu lwenziwa nokulawulwa ngayo.
Yintoni imodeli entsha enokwenzeka?
I-AIFS ENS v1 yimodeli edibeneyo esebenzisa ubuchule bokufunda ngomatshini ukulinganisa ukuziphatha kwe-atmosfere kunye nokudala uqikelelo lwemozulu ngembono ebanzi yeemeko ezinokwenzeka zexesha elizayo. Le nkqubo yenza ukulinganisa okuninzi ukusuka kwimeko efanayo yokuqala, isampuli yokusabalalisa okufundiweyo, oku ivumela ukubamba ukungaqiniseki okukhoyo kwingqikelelo yemozulu.
Ngombulelo kule ndlela, izibikezelo zifezekiswa ichaneke ngakumbi kwaye iyinyaniImodeli isebenzisa umsebenzi wokulahlekelwa kwe-CRPS, onceda ukulinganisa iziphumo, kuthathelwa ingqalelo imida ehambelana nokusebenza kunye nenani eliqingqiweyo lamalungu e-ensemble. Nje ngeziphumo, I-AIFS ENS iye yagqwesa iimodeli zendalo ezidityanisiweyo ngokwengqikelelo yoluhlu oluphakathi kwaye ikhuphisana kakhulu noqikelelo lwexesha elingaphantsi kwexesha..
Umahluko ophambili ngokubhekiselele kwiimodeli zemveli
Enye yezona mpawu zibalulekileyo ze I-AIFS ENS Yindlela edibanisa ilungu lolawulo. Ngelixa kwiimodeli ezisekelwe kwi-physics yendabuko, eli lungu lisebenza njenge-deterministic, i-reference unperturbed, kwimodeli esekelwe kwi-AI, le ndima yahlukile. Ilungu lolawulo lwe-AIFS ENS yimveliso yesampulu yangaphakathi yokusasazwa okufundwe yinkqubo., nto leyo ethetha ukuba ukungaqiniseki akunakucinywa ukuze kuqhutywe ufaniso olufana ncakasana nenkqubo yakudala.
Olu tshintsho lubonisa inkqubela phambili kwisikhundla se ukulindela iziganeko zemozulu ezinzima kwaye uvavanye imingcipheko eyayanyaniswa nayo ngokuqwalasela ukuguquguquka kwendalo kweatmosfera kwingqikelelo. Ukuba ufuna ukuphanda nzulu kwindlela imodeli yemozulu esebenza ngayo, ungabonisana ezinye iimodeli zemozulu nokubaluleka kwayo kuqikelelo lwemozulu.
I-Evolution kunye nolandelelwano lokuphunyezwa
Imodeli idlule kwisigaba sovavanyo apho iindlela ezahlukeneyo zavavanywa, ezinje ngobuchule bokusasaza, nangona uguqulelo olusebenzayo lugxile ngokukodwa ekuphuculeni nomsebenzi welahleko weCRPS. Ukudityaniswa kwe-AIFS ENS kwiinkqubo ze-ECMWF zokuqikelela kucwangciselwe umhla woku-1 kuJulayi wama-2025 ngo-06 UTC., kulandela inqanaba lovavanyo elaqala ngoJuni 23.
Okwangoku, abasebenzisi bezinye iimodeli ezifana ne-IFS kunye ne-AIFS Engatshatanga abayi kufumana naluphi na utshintsho, njengoko iinguqulelo zokusebenza kwezi nkqubo zihlala zilungile.
Impembelelo kunye neengcebiso kubasebenzisi
Ukufika kwe-AIFS ENS kuphawula a phambi nasemva kwi ukulawula ukungaqiniseki ngemozulu kunye nokuchaneka koqikelelo. Nangona kunjalo, abo bajonge ukusebenzisa ezi datha, ngakumbi ngeenjongo zokusebenza, kufuneka baphonononge ngokucokisekileyo ulwazi olukhoyo kwimiba eyaziwayo nesalindileyo. I-ECMWF ikwakhuthaza uluntu lwenzululwazi nobugcisa ukuba lubonelele ngengxelo yokuphucula ngakumbi inkqubo.
I-AIFS ENS ayenzelwanga ukutshintsha iimodeli zemveli ngokukhawuleza, kodwa endaweni yoko izalisekisa uluhlu lwezixhobo ezikhoyo zokuqikelela imozulu kunye neendlela ezihambele phambili ezilungiselelwe ixesha lokufunda koomatshini. Ukuqonda ngcono ukuvela kwezi modeli, kunokuba nomdla ukuphonononga.
Uphuhliso kunye nokusetyenziswa kwemifuziselo efana ne-AIFS ENS ivula inqanaba elitsha kuqikelelo lwemozulu, ukuphucula ulindelo kunye namandla okulawula umngcipheko Kwimeko yehlabathi apho iziganeko ezigqithisileyo zizuza ukuduma, ukuphuculwa okuqhubekayo kwezi zixhobo kuthembisa uqikelelo oluluncedo ngakumbi kubasebenzisi abaziingcali kunye noluntu ngokubanzi.
