Las uqikelelo lwemozulu baye bafumana indaleko ephawulekayo kwiminyaka yakutshanje enkosi indibaniselwano ubugcisa obutsha, iimodeli zemathematika kunye nokufakwa kobukrelekrele bokwenziwa (IA). Ngelixa uqikelelo lwangaphambili lwaluxhomekeke ekuqwalaselweni ngokuthe ngqo kweepateni esibhakabhakeni kunye namava aqokelelweyo, ukwenziwa kwedijithali kunye nokuphathwa okukhulu kwedatha kuguqule indlela esilindele ngayo imozulu.
Okwangoku, i ukuchaneka koqikelelo Ayibalulekanga kuphela kwabo bathatha isigqibo sokuba baphume neambrela, kodwa nakumacandelo afana nezolimo, umhlaba, ulwandle, kunye nokuhamba ngenqwelomoya, uthintelo lwentlekele, kunye nempilo yoluntu. Iimodeli zemathematika zenza kube lula ukuqikelela ngenguquko yeqondo lobushushu, ukufuma, uxinzelelo, imvula, kunye nomoya ngokuthembeka okukhulu kwimimandla eyahlukeneyo kunye nezikali zexesha.
Ubukrelekrele bokwenziwa bandisa isakhono semeteorology
Ukufika kobukrelekrele bokwenziwa imele umtsi omkhulu kuqikelelo lwemozulu. Imibutho efana neMétéo-France kunye neenkampani ezifana noGoogle ziphumeze iinkqubo ezifunda kwiiseti zedatha enkulu ukuvelisa. uqikelelo olukhawulezayo noluneenkcukacha. Umzekelo, amaqonga afana ILebhu yeMozulu I-Google DeepMind's ngoku inokuqikelela ukubunjwa, umkhondo, kunye nobunzulu bezitshingitshane, ukuvelisa iimeko ezininzi ezinokubakho ukuya kuthi ga kwiiveki ezimbini ngaphambili.
Le mifuziselo ye-AI Bagqama ngenxa yesantya kunye nokusebenza kakuhle, njengoko zifuna izixhobo zokubala ezimbalwa kunezo zemveli. Nangona kunjalo, baxhomekeke kakhulu kumgangatho kunye nokwahluka kwedatha yoqeqesho. Umba ophambili kukuba, ngelixa bebonisa amandla amakhulu okulindela izehlo ezinkulu-ezifana nenkanyamba okanye izaqhwithi ezinamandla-bayasokola ukuqikelela iziganeko ezingaqhelekanga okanye ezingabhalwanga ngaphambili. I-AI, ngokuthembela kwiipatheni ezidlulileyo, inokuzabalaza xa iimeko ezingazange zibonwe zivela emoyeni.
Ngenxa yesi sizathu, ii-arhente ezininzi zemozulu Babheja ngendlela exutyiweyo, ukudibanisa imodeli ebonakalayo (esebenzisa imithetho ye-atmospheric physics) kunye nezixhobo zobukrelekrele bokwenziwa. Le ntsebenziswano iphucula zombini isantya kunye nokuchaneka kwezibikezelo, ngakumbi kwiimeko zokutshintsha kwemozulu apho ukuziphatha okungazange kubonwe ngaphambili kunokuvela.
Izitishi ezitsha kunye nothungelwano lwehlabathi ukuphucula uqikelelo
Kunye nenguquko yedijithali, i Ukwandiswa kothungelwano lwezikhululo zemozulu kwiindawo ezicwangcisiweyo inceda ukwandisa ukhuseleko kunye nomgangatho wedatha eqokelelweyo. Enye yenkqubela phambili yakutshanje kukufakelwa kwezikhululo ezitsha kwiindawo ekunzima ukufikelela kuzo, ezifana ne INtaba iAconcagua eArgentina, okanye iMount Everest. Ezi zixhobo zivumela ukuqokelelwa kwedatha ngexesha lokwenyani kwiiparameters ezifana neqondo lobushushu, ukusasazeka kwemitha yelanga, uxinzelelo, kunye nomoya, nakumphakamo ongaphezulu kwe-6.500 yeemitha.
Ulwazi oluqokelelwa zezi zikhululo, rhoqo ngentsebenziswano nemibutho yamazwe ngamazwe, lusasazwa ngesathelayithi kuthungelwano lokubeka iliso kwihlabathi jikelele. Oku iphucula ukuqondwa kweziganeko zasekhaya nezehlabathi jikelele, ezifana ne-glacier dynamics, iimpendulo zobunzima bomkhenkce kukufudumala, kunye nokuvela kobutyebi bamanzi. Ngaphaya koko, idatha izondla kwiimodeli eziqikelelwayo kwaye yonyusa ukhuseleko lohambo kunye nabahlali basentabeni.
Amanyathelo afana ne Iprojekthi yeWayra Babonisa indlela intsebenziswano yamazwe ngamazwe, isayensi, kunye nobuchwepheshe budibana ukuze balindele ngcono iziganeko ezigqithiseleyo kunye nefuthe labo ekuboneleleni kwamanzi kunye nokulawulwa kweentlekele.
Unyino kunye nemingeni kuqikelelo lwemozulu lwangoku
Ngaphandle kwenkqubela phambili, Ukuqikelela imozulu kuhlala kungumngeni ngenxa yesiphithiphithi esisemoyeniIingcali ezisuka kwi-Arhente yeMeteorological State zichaza ukuba kunzima ukunika uqikelelo oluthembekileyo olunokuthenjwa ngaphaya kweentsuku ezi-4-6, kwaye uqikelelo olunokwenzeka alufane ludlule iintsuku ezili-15 nasiphi na isiqinisekiso. Kwimimandla efana ne-Asturias, imozulu inokutshintsha kakhulu ngexesha elifutshane kakhulu, kwaye kububulumko ukulungiselela nayiphi na imeko.
Iimodeli zobukrelekrele bokwenziwa zibonakalise ukuba zichanekile kwiimeko eziqhelekileyo, kodwa Xa ujongene nezinto ezingazange zibonwe ngaphambili, ezinjengezaqhwithi zodidi ezingazange zibonwe ngaphambili kwidatha yoqeqesho, zinokusilela. kuqikelelo lwabo. Ke ngoko, ukutolikwa komntu kunye namava eengcali zemozulu ahlala engenakuthatyathelwa indawo ekuchongeni ubungozi kunye nokulungelelanisa izilumkiso kwimeko nganye ethile.
Iindlela zeHybrid ziyaphuhliswa ezibandakanya zombini amandla okutshintsha kweatmosfera kunye nokukwazi kwe-AI ukuqaphela iipateni. Ikamva likhomba kwiimodeli ezomelele ngakumbi, ezikwazi ukulindela ngcono iziganeko ezigqithisileyo kunye nokulawula ukungaqiniseki okukhoyo kuqikelelo lwemozulu.
Izicelo kunye neenzuzo zoqikelelo oluchaneka ngokwandayo
La ukuphuculwa koqikelelo lwemozulu Ineziphumo ezithe ngqo kubomi bemihla ngemihla kunye nesicwangciso sexesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide. Ulimo luxhomekeke ekwazini ukuba kuya kubakho nini imvula okanye iqabaka ukuze kucwangciswe isivuno. Uthutho lomoya nolwandle luxhamla kwizaqhwithi ezilindelekileyo okanye imimoya ebhudla ngamandla. Ulawulo olungxamisekileyo lusebenza kakuhle xa iinkanyamba okanye izandyondyo zemvula zinokuqikelelwa kwangethuba ngokwaneleyo ukuze kuphume abantu okanye kukhuselwe iziseko ezingundoqo. Nkqu impilo yoluntu izuza ngokulindela iziqephu zobushushu obugqithisileyo okanye ungcoliseko.
Intsebenziswano yamazwe ngamazwe, utyalo-mali kwi-teknoloji, kunye nokuhlanganiswa kwedatha ehlala ikhula evela kwiisathelayithi, izikhululo zomhlaba, kunye neemodeli eziphambili zithetha ukuba umda wephutha kwiibikezelo uqhubeka uyancipha unyaka nonyaka. Nangona kunjalo, ubume obungalindelekanga be-atmosphere kunye nomngeni weziganeko ezigqithiseleyo zifuna ukuhlaziywa rhoqo kunye nokuhlanganiswa kolwazi lwabantu kunye nobuchule bobukrelekrele bokwenziwa.
Ngale ndlela, zombini izazinzulu kunye nabemi banezixhobo ezinamandla ngakumbi zokulindela utshintsho kwimozulu, ukuqonda ngcono imozulu, kunye nokuziqhelanisa nemingeni yexesha elizayo.
