La Ixesha leenkanyamba lango-2026 eMexico Ibonakala njengenye yezona zijongwe kakhulu kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ngokutsho kwe- ukuqapha kunye noqikelelo eMexicoIingxelo ezisekelwe kwiirekhodi ukususela ngo-1964 zibonisa ukuba Ubuncinane iinkanyamba ezintlanu zaseTropiki zinokuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo indawo yaseMexico, inani elihambelana nomndilili wembali kodwa kunye nenye into eyongezelelweyo yemeko yemozulu engazinzile.
Idatha yokuqala ekhutshwe yi- Inkonzo yeMeteorological yeSizwe (SMN) kwaye iboniswe kwi Isemina yama-21 yeHlabathi yeNkanyambaIntlanganiso ebibanjelwe eMérida ibonisa ukuba eli lizwe liza kujongana nexesha elinzima. inani elikhulu leenkqubo kunye namathuba okuba neenkanyamba ezinamandla zombini kwiLwandlekazi iPasifiki neAtlantiki. Okwangoku, amagunya oKhuseleko loLuntu aphucula imigaqo-nkqubo kwaye aphuhlisa izixhobo ezintsha zokulumkisa kwangethuba ukunciphisa iingozi.
Imihla ebalulekileyo yexesha leziphepho lika-2026 eMexico
Ikhalenda esemthethweni yeenkanyamba eMexico icwangciswe ngokwemilambo kwaye ihlala izinzile unyaka nonyaka, ivumela uluntu ukuba lulindele ixesha lengozi enkulu. Ngowama-2026, Imihla ayitshintshi., ngokutsho kwe Imihla ephambili kunye namagamaKodwa iyahlangabezana nenqanaba lonyango olucetyiswa ngabasemagunyeni.
Kulo ipacific OceanIxesha lonyaka liqala 15 ngoMeyi, ngokuhambelana nokuqala kwexesha lemvula kwiindawo ezininzi zelizwe, ngelixa Ulwandlekazi lweAtlantiki, iGulf of Mexico, kunye noLwandle lweCaribbean isiqalo simiselwe kwi 1 ngoJuniKuzo zombini iindawo zokuhlambela, ukuvalwa kucwangciselwe 30 ngoNovemba, njengesiqhelo.
I-SMN ichaze kudliwanondlebe lwakutshanje ukuba Ixesha lemvula kunye nexesha leenkanyamba zasetropiki zihlobene kakhuluIinkqubo zokuqala zetropiki ezenzeka kwiPasifiki zihlala ziphawula ukuqala kwexesha lemvula. Enyanisweni, le arhente iqikelela ukuba imvula iya kusasazeka malunga ne-15 kaMeyi, ngokuhambelana neepateni zemozulu ezibonisiweyo.
Kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo, ingakumbi phakathi Juni no-OktobhaKulindeleke ukuba kubekho ubuninzi beziganeko, kunye nokwanda kwemisebenzi yetropiki phakathi kwehlobo nasekuqaleni kwekwindla, xa amaqondo obushushu olwandle ephezulu kwaye umoya uba luncedo ngakumbi ekuphuhlisweni kweenkanyamba.
Ngaphambi kokuba isizini iqale ngokusesikweni, i-SMN kunye ULungelelaniso lweSizwe loKhuseleko loLuntu Baza kubonisa uqikelelo oluneenkcukacha lweenkanyamba ezilindelekileyo. Olu balo, oluza kwaziswa eluntwini phakathi ekupheleni kuka-Epreli kunye nokuqala kukaMeyiIza kuchaza inani lezivuthuvuthu kunye neenkanyamba ezilindelekileyo kwisisele ngasinye kwaye iza kusebenza njengesikhokelo sezenzo zokuthintela kumazwe angaselunxwemeni.
Zingaphi iinkanyamba ezilindelekileyo kwaye zinokuba nefuthe elingakanani?
Uqikelelo lokuqala lwe Inkonzo yeMeteorological yeSizwe Kwaye iingcali zemozulu zikhomba kwi ixesha elixakekileyo kunesiqheloLilonke, phakathi kwePasifiki neAtlantiki, oku kulandelayo kunokwenziwa: phakathi kweenkqubo zetropiki ezingama-29 kunye nama-39, inani elidlula umndilili wembali wamashumi eminyaka adlulileyo.
Ku ipacific Ocean ukwakheka phakathi Iinkanyamba zetropiki ezili-15 kunye ne-20xa uku IAtlantic Iiprojekthi zibeka umsebenzi phakathi Iinkqubo ezili-14 nele-19Ayingabo bonke abaya kufikelela kumandla eenkanyamba okanye bafikelele kumhlaba okufutshane, kodwa kulindeleke ukuba iqhekeza elikhulu linokubangela imvula enkulu, umoya onamandla kunye namaza aphezulu kwiindawo ezikunxweme.
Isekelwe kwiirekhodi zemozulu eziqokelelwe kwi 1964 ukuya kwi-2025Iingcali kwiNational Meteorological Service (SMN) ziqikelela ukuba, ngokomyinge, Iinkanyamba ezintathu ngonyaka zichaphazela unxweme lwePasifiki kwaye ezimbini zichaphazela unxweme lweAtlantikiUkusuka apha kuza inani lesalathiso sika-2026: malunga neenkanyamba ezintlanu zaseTropiki ezinefuthe ngqo eMexiconokuba kukungqubana komhlaba okanye yimijikelo yemvula kunye nemimoya ekufutshane nonxweme.
Nangona kunjalo, iingcali zigxininisa ukuba eli lixabiso lemozulu kwaye alilonani elimiselweyo. Indlela yokuziphatha yokwenyani yexesha ngalinye lonyaka inokwahluka ngokwesilinganiso: ngo-2025, umzekelo, zimbini kuphela iinkanyamba ezafika eMexico, ngaphantsi kakhulu komndilili, nangona amandla eenkqubo ezininzi zaselunxwemeni ayemangalisa.
Ngaphaya kwenani leenkanyamba, inkxalabo ephambili yile ubukhulu abanokufikelela kuboIzibikezelo zibonisa ukuba Ubuncinane iinkanyamba ezine okanye ezintlanu kunxweme ngalunye zinokuguquka zibe ziindidi eziphambili (3, 4 okanye 5) kwisikali sikaSaffir-SimpsonOku kubeka umngcipheko omkhulu kwiziseko ezibalulekileyo, kwiindawo zabakhenkethi, nakwiindawo ezihlala abantu abakunxweme lolwandle.
Amazwe achaphazeleka kakhulu kwaye awona mngcipheko mkhulu
Impembelelo yexesha leenkanyamba ayisasazwanga ngokulinganayo elunxwemeni. Idatha yembali ibeka amazwe aliqela njengala iindawo ezibuthathaka ngakumbi kwimiphumo yezivuthuvuthu kunye neenkanyamba ezivela kwiPasifiki nakwiAtlantiki.
Kwithambeka le Pacifico, yima geqe Baja California Sur kunye nemeko ye GuerreroLe yokugqibela isajongwa ngokusondeleyo ngabasemagunyeni emva kokubandakanyeka kwiziganeko ezahlukeneyo kwiminyaka yakutshanje. iimpembelelo zenkanyamba ezibangele umonakalo omkhulu, kunye neziqendu zakutshanje zeenkanyamba eziphezulu ezivavanya amandla okusabela kwindawo.
Kwisitya se IAtlanticIindawo ezixhalabisayo zigxile kakhulu UQuintana Roo, eYucatán, eVeracruz naseTamaulipas, izinto ezine ezichaphazeleka kakhulu kwiinkqubo ezicwangciswe kwi Ulwandle lweCaribbean kunye neGulf of MexicoUkongeza ekubeni sesichengeni kwayo ngokwendawo, ukubaluleka kwabakhenkethi kunye noqoqosho lwezi ndawo Oku kwenza ukuba nayiphi na ingozi ibe nemiphumo emikhulu.
Nangona kunjalo, iziphumo zezivuthuvuthu azipheleli kwiindawo ezikunxweme lolwandle kuphela. Iibhanti zemvula ezinxulumene nezivuthuvuthu kunye neenkanyamba Zingahamba amakhulu eekhilomitha ukuya ngaphakathi elizweni, nto leyo ebangela izikhukula, ukudilika komhlaba, kunye nezikhukula ezikhawulezileyo kwiindawo ezikude nendawo enokuchaphazeleka kuyo. Ngenxa yesi sizathu, iNkonzo yeSizwe yeMeteorological (SMN) kunye noKhuseleko loLuntu zigxininisa ukuba amanyathelo okuthintela kufuneka anwenwele kulo lonke ilizwe.
Kulo mxholo, izikhululo zeenqwelo-moya kunye neendlela eziphambili zothutho Zithathwa njengeziseko zophuhliso ezicwangcisiweyo, kuba ngexesha likaxakeka zisebenza njengeendawo eziphambili zokukhupha abantu, ukudluliselwa kwamaqela okuhlangula kunye nokwamkelwa koncedo loluntu.
Impembelelo ye-El Niño, iLa Niña kunye nokufudumala kolwandle
Indlela eziziphatha ngayo iziphepho zonyaka ka-2026 inxulumene kakhulu nemeko yemozulu yehlabathi, ingakumbi ekuguqukeni kweziganeko. El Niño y Intombi, ezitshintsha ubushushu kunye neepatheni zokujikeleza komoya kwiPasifiki eshushu.
Njengoko kuchaziwe Alejandro García Jiménez, enoxanduva loLawulo oluPhantsi lweeNkonzo zeMeteorology kunye neMozulu ze-SMN, iMexico okwangoku ijongene nenkqubo isigaba sotshintshoInkqubo ishiya ngasemva iimeko Intombi kwaye isiya kwimeko elawulwa yi El Niño, kunye nokwanda okuqikelelweyo kwi ubushushu bomphezulu woLwandlekazi lwePasifiki olushushu ngexesha leenyanga zikaJuni, uJulayi kunye no-Agasti.
Olu tshintsho ludla ngokuguqulelwa ekubeni ukwanda komsebenzi we-cyclonic kwiPasifiki kwaye, ngamanye amaxesha, ukuncipha okuncinci kokwakheka kweenkqubo kwiAtlantiki. Nangona kunjalo, iingcali zigxininisa ukuba impendulo ayizenzekeli, kuba Kukho nezinye izinto ezibandakanyekayo njengoxinzelelo lomoya, ulawulo lomoya kwiindawo eziphakamileyo, kunye nokwakheka kwamafu kumanqanaba ahlukeneyo omoya.
I-El Niño ayinayo kuphela impembelelo kwinani lezivuthuvuthu, kodwa nakwimikhwa yemvula kunye namaqondo obushushu. ukwandisa umngcipheko wembalela Kwezinye iindawo, ukuqinisa Imvula emazantsi nakumazantsi-mpuma eMexico kwaye kutshintshwe ukusasazwa kweziganeko zemvula enamandla, kunye nemiphumo ethe ngqo kumacandelo afana nezolimo, ulawulo lwamanzi kunye nemfuno yombane.
Ngenxa yesi simo, i-SMN igcina Ukubeka esweni rhoqo imeko yolwandle kunye nomoya ukulungisa uqikelelo lwayo njengoko ulwazi oluthe kratya lufumaneka. Uqikelelo lwexesha lonyaka luya kuhlaziywa kulo lonke intwasahlobo, kugxilwe kakhulu kwixesha lasehlotyeni nelasekwindla, apho iziphumo ze-El Niño zihlala zisiba mandundu.
Izibikezelo ezisemthethweni kunye nendima yeSemina yeNkanyamba yaMazwe ngaMazwe
Uninzi lolwazi lokuqala malunga nexesha lonyaka ka-2026 luvezwe kwi Isemina yama-21 yeHlabathi yeNkanyamba, iforam apho iingcali zemozulu, amagosa okhuseleko loluntu kunye nabameli bamaziko karhulumente badibana khona ukuze hlalutya iindlela ezisetyenziswayo kwaye uphucule ukulungela iinkanyamba zasetropiki.
Ngexesha lentlanganiso, ebibanjelwe e Merida YucatanImpembelelo ephakathi isekelwe kwiirekhodi phakathi 1964 kunye ne2025, kunye noqikelelo lokuba Iinkanyamba ezintlanu ezishushu zingafika eMexico ngo-2026Iingcali zigxininise ukuba le yindawo yokubhekisa kwimozulu enokuguquguquka isiya phezulu okanye ezantsi kuxhomekeke kwindlela ezitshintsha ngayo iimeko zolwandle kunye nomoya.
Umphathi weMeteorology kunye neClimatology kwi-SMN, URafael Trejo VázquezUgxininise ukuba Kusalungiselelwa uqikelelo oluneenkcukacha. kwaye iza kuboniswa ngokusesikweni kwintlanganiso neNational Civil Protection Coordination ecwangciselwe u-Epreli. Kuloo ntlanganiso, inani elilindelekileyo lezinkanyamba kuzo zombini iindawo liza kuchazwa, kunye neemeko zomngcipheko kummandla ngamnye.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, UFabian Vazquez RomañaUmququzeleli jikelele we-SMN ugxininise imfuneko yokuba Qinisa amanyathelo okuthintela kunye nenkcubeko yokuzikhuselaUkukhumbula ukuba indibaniselwano yotshintsho lwemozulu, amaqondo obushushu aphezulu olwandle kunye nokufudukela kwabantu ezidolophini kwiindawo ezisengozini kwandisa amathuba okuba bahlaselwe ziintlekele zemvelo.
Phakathi kwezinto eziza kuqala ezichongiweyo kwiseminari kukuqinisa iinkqubo zokujonga imozulu, ukuphuculwa kwe imiqathango yokhuseleko loluntu kumazwe angaselunxwemeni kunye nokuhlaziywa kwezicwangciso zokufuduka kunye neendawo zokukhosela zexeshana, ingakumbi kwiindawo ezinabantu abaninzi kunye nemisebenzi yabakhenkethi.
Ubuchwepheshe, izilumkiso zakwangoko, kunye nezixhobo ezintsha zokubeka esweni
Ukongeza kwiingxelo zeenkanyamba, i-SMN iyasebenza ekuphuhliseni izixhobo ezintsha zobuchwepheshe ukuphucula i Ukubeka esweni iinkqubo zasetropiki kunye nokusasazwa kolwazi kuluntu ngexesha langempela. Injongo kukunciphisa umda wokumangaliswa nokwenza kube lula ebantwini ukwenza izigqibo ezinolwazi kwangethuba.
Enye yeenkqubo ezibalaseleyo kweli xesha lonyaka kukuvavanya inkqubo yesilumkiso sefowuni ephathwayo Yenzelwe ngokukodwa iziganeko ezinxulumene neenkanyamba, ezifana naleyo sele isetyenziswa kwiinyikima kwezinye iindawo. Le ndlela iza kuvumela ukuba izaziso ezithe ngqo zithunyelwe kubasebenzisi malunga iimvula ezinkulu, imimoya enamandla, okanye izikhukula ezinokubakho ezinxulumene neziphepho kunye neenkanyamba.
Ezi zilumkiso ziya kongeza kwizilumkiso zemveli ezikhutshwe yi- I-SMN, iKhomishini yeSizwe yezaManzi (iConagua) kunye noKhuseleko lwaBasebenziisasazwa ngeendaba, iinethiwekhi zentlalo, kunye neendlela ezisemthethweni. Injongo kukuba ulwazi lufikelele ebantwini ngeendlela ezininzi kwaye lube icacile, ifike ngexesha kwaye kulula ukuyiqonda kuye nawuphi na ummi.
Kwangaxeshanye, iimodeli zokuqikelela amanani Ezi zixhobo zisetyenziselwa ukuqikelela indlela eza kuhamba ngayo, isantya, kunye nobukhali bezitshingitshane. Ukuphuculwa kwezi zixhobo, okuxhaswa yidatha evela kwiisathelayithi, ii-ocean buoys, kunye neeradar zemozulu, kuvumela ukwahlulahlula ngokuchanekileyo iindawo ezinokuthi zichaphazeleke.
Konke oku kuyinxalenye yesicwangciso esibanzi sokuziqhelanisa ukwanda kokuguquguquka kwemozulu kunye nokwanda kweziganeko ezigqithisileyookungachaphazeli iMexico kuphela, kodwa nakwezinye iindawo ezibonakala kwiAtlantiki nakwiPasifiki, kuquka nenxalenye enkulu yeCaribbean.
Zithiywa njani izivunguvungu zaseTropiki kwaye zeziphi izintlu eziza kusetyenziswa ngo-2026?
Enye into edla ngokutsala ingqalelo yoluntu minyaka le uluhlu lwamagama aza kufunyanwa ziinkanyambaI-World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) ilawula le nkqubo yokubiza amagama, esebenzisa uluhlu oluchazwe kwangaphambili luhlelwe ngokwealfabhethi kwisitya ngasinye kwaye ezijikeleziswa kwimijikelo yeminyaka emithandathu.
Isivuthuvuthu setropiki sifumana igama elifanelekileyo xa Ifikelela kudidi lweziphepho zaseTropikiOko kukuthi, xa ifumana umoya ongapheliyo ubuncinane Iikhilomitha ezingama-63 ngeyureNgaphambi kwaloo mda, ichazwa ngamanani okanye oonobumba, kodwa ayifumani gama lisemthethweni kuluhlu.
Kwimeko Mpuma-mpuma yePasifikiIxesha lonyaka ka-2026 liza kusebenzisa uluhlu oluqala ngo UAmanda, uBoris kunye noCristinaabaza kulandelwa, phakathi kwabanye, UDouglas, uElida, uFausto, uGeneviev, uHernan, uIselle, uJulio njalo njalo de kugqitywe oonobumba. Igama ngalinye lisetyenziswa kube kanye kuphela ngexesha lonyaka kwaye aliphindiwe de kujikelezwe uluhlu kwakhona emva kweminyaka emithandathu.
Ku IAtlanticInkanyamba yokuqala ebizwa ngegama ka-2026 iya kuba Arthur, ilandelwe UBertha, uCristóbal, uDolly, uEdouard, uFay, uGonzalo kunye noHannaphakathi kwabanye. NjengakwiPasifiki, uluhlu luqhubeka ngokwealfabhethi ukuya kuthi ga kwileta u-W, kunye UWilfred njengoko isibongo besicwangcisiwe.
Xa isivuthuvuthu sibangela umonakalo omkhulu okanye inani eliphezulu lamaxhobaIgama layo liyasuswa kuluhlu ukuze kuthintelwe ukudideka kunye nonxulumano olubi kwixesha elizayo. Oku kunjalo, umzekelo, ngamagama athatyathelwe indawo emva kwexesha lakutshanje kwiCaribbean, apho iziphepho ezitshabalalisayo zikhokelele i-WMO ukuba faka amagama amatsha ukuze athathe indawo lawo angaphambili.
Amanyathelo okuthintela acetyiswayo kuluntu
Nangona inqanaba elisebenzayo kakhulu lisekude, abasemagunyeni bagxininisa ukuba Ukulungiselela kufanele kuqale kwangethuba.Amava avela kwixesha elidlulileyo abonisa ukuba isivuthuvuthu esinye esicwangciswe kakuhle sanele ukubangela isiganeko esichaphazela kakhulu, esinomonakalo omkhulu wezinto eziphathekayo kunye nemiphumo yentlalo.
Phakathi kweengcebiso ezisisiseko, uKhuseleko loLuntu lucebisa yiba nendawo yokugcina izinto ezingxamisekileyo encinci Pakisha amanzi okusela, ukutya okungaboliyo, amayeza asetyenziswa rhoqo, kunye neetotshi kunye neebhetri ezingasetyenziswayo. Olu hlobo lwezinto lunokwenza umahluko omkhulu ukuba umbane okanye ukufikelela evenkileni kuphazamisekile kangangeentsuku ezininzi.
Ngokufanayo, uluntu luyabuzwa Landela iingxelo ezisemthethweni ngokusondeleyo INkonzo yeSizwe yeMeteorological (SMN) kunye noorhulumente basekuhlaleni bayacetyiswa, endaweni yokuthembela kumarhe okanye kulwazi olungaqinisekiswanga olusasazwa kwimidiya yoluntu. Izilumkiso zesiphango, izilumkiso, kunye nezaziso zengxakeko zikhutshwa kwangethuba ukuze uluntu lukwazi ukwenza izigqibo ezinolwazi.
Olunye uphawu oluphambili lu Kuphephe ukusondela emilanjeni, kwimifula, kwiindlela zamanzi nakwiindawo ezikunxweme Xa kuqikelelwa ukuba kuza kubakho iimvula ezinkulu okanye iziphepho. Nokuba inkanyamba ayifiki kwindawo echanekileyo apho umntu ahlala khona, imiphetho yemvula inokubangela ukunyuka ngequbuliso kwamanqanaba amanzi kunye namaza ayingozi kakhulu kumgama omde ukusuka embindini wenkqubo.
Okokugqibela, iingcali zicebisa ukuba zihlolisise ngononophelo izicwangciso zongxamiseko zosapho: vumelanani ngeendawo zokudibana, fumana iindawo zokukhusela zexeshana ezikufutshane, jonga imeko yendlu kwaye wazi iindlela zokuphuma ezichazwe ziigunya zasekuhlaleni, ingakumbi kwiindawo ezikufutshane neenduli, imilambo okanye iindawo ezisezantsi ezisengozini yezikhukula.
Xa zizonke, ulwazi olufumanekayo ngo-2026 luzoba umfanekiso ixesha leenkanyamba ezisebenzayo eziphawulwe yimpembelelo ye-El NiñoNjengoko kukho inani eliphezulu kuneliqhelekileyo lezivuthuvuthu kunye namathuba amakhulu okuba neziganeko eziqatha kuzo zombini iinxweme zaseMexico, uqikelelo lusalungiswa. I-avareji yembali ibonisa ukuba malunga neenkanyamba ezintlanu zinokuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo ilizwe, nto leyo, xa idibene nokufudumala kolwandle kunye nokwanda kokuvezwa kwiindawo ezikunxweme, yenza uthintelo, ukuphuculwa kweenkqubo zesilumkiso, kunye nokuthobela izilumkiso ezisemthethweni kubaluleke kakhulu kunangaphambili.
