La Ixesha leenkanyamba zaseAtlantiki zowama-2026 Eli xesha liza kuphawulwa yimpembelelo ye-El Niño, kunye noqikelelo olubonisa ukuba umsebenzi uphantsi kancinci kunesiqhelo, kodwa kukho umngcipheko ongenakunyamalala. Iiarhente eziphambili zemozulu zamazwe ngamazwe ziyavuma ukuba, phakathi kukaJuni noNovemba, i-Atlantic basin iza kuhlala ijongiwe ngenxa yokuba kunokwenzeka ukuba kubekho iinkanyamba ezinokubangela umonakalo omkhulu kwiindawo ezikunxweme.
Amaziko ahlukeneyo okubhekisa kuwo, afana I-NOAA, i-World Meteorological Organisation (I-OMMkunye ne-International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)Bagxininisa ukuba ixesha lonyaka elingaphantsi kancinci komndilili akuthethi ukuba kukho uxolo lwengqondo olupheleleyo. Inkqubo enye ecwangcisiweyo kakuhle yokufikelela kwindawo enabantu abaninzi yimfuneko. IAtlantiki, iCaribbean okanye iGulf of Mexico ukuvelisa isiganeko esinefuthe elikhulu, into ekwanomdla kakhulu eYurophu ngenxa yemiphumo enokubakho efana neentsalela zenkanyamba kunye nezivuthuvuthu ezinxulumene nazo.
Ikhalenda esemthethweni kunye nomxholo ka-2026
Ngokwenkcazo yokusebenza ye NOAA, la Ixesha leenkanyamba zaseAtlantiki lika-2026 Iqala ngokusesikweni ngomhla woku-1 kuJuni ize iqhubeke kude kube ngumhla wama-30 kuNovemba, apho u-Agasti noSeptemba beziinyanga ezisebenza kakhulu. Eli xesha liquka iNorth Atlantic, uLwandle lweCaribbean, kunye neGulf of Mexico, iindawo ezintathu apho iinkanyamba zasetropiki zinokufumana iimeko ezilungileyo kakhulu zophuhliso lwazo.
Kwimpuma yePasifiki, ekwachaphazela ngokungathanga ngqo amandla omoya wehlabathi, ixesha elisemthethweni liqala ukususela Meyi 15 ukuya kuNovemba 30Nangona iyindawo eyahlukileyo, okwenzekayo apho kubalulekile kuba imeko ye-equatorial Pacific, ngomjikelo we-ENSO (i-El Niño, i-La Niña kunye nesigaba esingathathi hlangothi), itshintsha indlela yokuziphatha kwe-atmosphere kwisikali seplanethi kwaye, ngenxa yoko, ilawula ukuvela kwexesha le-Atlantic.
Ngokwembali, phakathi kwixesha lonyaka kwiAtlantiki Ibonakala ngezivuthuvuthu ezimalunga ne-14 eziqanjwe ngamagama, izivuthuvuthu ezisi-7, kunye nezivuthuvuthu ezinkulu ezi-3 (udidi lwesi-3 okanye ngaphezulu kwisikali seSaffir-Simpson). Kwimpuma yePasifiki, umndilili umalunga nezivuthuvuthu eziqanjwe ngamagama ezili-15, izivuthuvuthu ezisi-8, kunye nezivuthuvuthu ezinkulu ezi-4. Ezi milinganiselo zisebenza njengendawo yokuthelekisa iintlobo ngeentlobo ze uqikelelo olukhutshwe sijonge phambili ku-2026.
Ngowama-2026, amaqela aliqela ophando, kuquka Umngcipheko Weenkanyamba ZeTropiki (TSR)Bakhomba imeko ekufutshane nomndilili okanye engaphantsi kancinci komndilili eAtlantiki, apho malunga Izivuthuvuthu ezili-14 eziqanjwe ngamagama, izivuthuvuthu ezisi-7 kunye nezivuthuvuthu ezinkulu ezintathuIsalathisi se-Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), esilinganisa amandla apheleleyo akhutshwa zizo zonke iinkqubo, simalunga neeyunithi ezili-125, inani elisondele kakhulu kumaxabiso emozulu.
I-El Niño: into ephambili yoqikelelo lwemozulu
Into enkulu engaziwayo ye 2026 ixesha lenkanyamba Kukuziphendukela kwemvelo kwe El NiñoLe meko inxulumene ne ukufudumala okungaqhelekanga kwamanzi e-equatorial Pacificnto leyo etshintsha iipatheni zomoya kunye noxinzelelo emoyeni. Kwi-Atlantic basin, ubukho bayo budla ngokuthetha ukwanda komoya othe nkqo, oko kukuthi, utshintsho olukhawulezileyo kwisantya somoya kunye necala elihamba nokuphakama, okuthintela ukulungelelaniswa kweenkanyamba zasetropiki.
Ukuxilongwa kwamva nje kwesifo IZiko lokuQikelela iMozulu (CPC) le-NOAA kunye ne-IRI Zibonisa ukuba indlela eyayikade ilawula iLa Niña iyancipha kwaye iza kuqala inike indawo kwiimeko ezingathathi cala, ize emva koko inike indawo i-El Niño. Amathuba okuba esi siganeko siphuhle phakathi NgoJuni nango-Agasti Ngokutsho kwe-NOAA, zimalunga ne-62%, ngelixa ezinye iimodeli zamazwe ngamazwe ziphakamisa eli nani liye phezulu njenge 80-90% kwisiganeko esinamandla okanye nokuba nzima kakhulu.
Enyanisweni, oku kuthetha ukuba, ukuba I-El Niño izinzile ngokukhawuleza ngaphambi kokuba kufike ixesha eliphezulu lonyaka (Agasti-Septemba), umsebenzi we-cyclonic ungancitshiswa kwinani leenkqubo. Isishwankathelo sobuchwephesha se-NOAA siyakuxhasa oku: ukuba le nto ihlangana kwangethuba, ixesha lonyaka lingabhalisa iinkanyamba ezimbalwa kunomndilili; ukuba, kwelinye icala, utshintsho lulibazisekile, kukho indawo yezivuthuvuthu zangethuba okanye isiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka esisebenzayo ngakumbi.
La I-OMM Nangona kunjalo, eminye imibutho igxininisa ukuba isiphumo se-El Niño asisebenzi sodwa. Amaqondo obushushu e-Atlantic, ukufuma okuphakathi, ubukho bothuli lwaseSahara, kunye nendawo yeenkqubo ezinkulu zoxinzelelo oluphezulu zinokuguqula okanye zithintele kancinci impembelelo yokusika umoya onxulunyaniswa ne-El Niño.
Izinto ezinokuqinisa okanye zithintele umsebenzi
Ngaphaya kwe-ENSO, kukho izinto ezininzi iingcali ezizijonga ngokusondeleyo ukuze zilungise uqikelelo lwazo njengoko ukuqala kwexesha lonyaka ka-2026 kusondela. Ubushushu bomphezulu weAtlantiki Yenye yezona zibalulekileyo: amaxabiso angaphezulu komndilili avumela naluphi na ukuphazamiseka kwetropiki okufuna ukuba amandla afunekayo aqine.
Ngokomzekelo, ngo-2023, I-NOAA ibhale izivuthuvuthu ezingama-20 eziqanjwe ngamagama kunye nezivuthuvuthu ezisi-7La manani ayengaphezulu komndilili, nangona imeko yomoya enxulumene ne-El Niño yayingalungelanga kakhulu uphuhliso lwe-cyclonic. Ingcaciso yayikumanzi afudumeleyo kakhulu e-Atlantic, awayeyithintela kancinci impembelelo yokuthintela i-wind shear.
Enye into ebalulekileyo kukuba ukufuma kumanqanaba asezantsi naphakathi omoyaIndawo enomswakama ngakumbi ivumela amafu ajikelezayo, isiseko seziphepho zasetropiki, ukuba ahlale kwaye akhule ngokulula. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, umoya owomileyo, njengalowo uthuli lwaseSahara olunokuwuthwala lungene kwiAtlantiki, uthambekele ekunciphiseni ukwakheka kwenkanyamba ngokomisa umoya ojikelezileyo kunye nokuthintela imitha ethile yelanga.
Ukusasazwa kwe amaziko anoxinzelelo oluphezuluEzi ziquka iAzores High kunye neBermuda High. Indawo yazo kunye namandla azo zinokuthintela iindlela zesiphepho, zizise elwandle oluvulekileyo okanye zizise kufutshane neCaribbean, iGulf of Mexico, kwaye ngamanye amaxesha, zibangele ukuba intsalela yazo iye eNtshona Yurophu ngendlela yeziphepho zasetropiki.
I-NOAA ngokwayo igxininisa ukuba ukulandelwa ngaxeshanye kwazo zonke ezi zinto Ivumela ukucocwa kwengqikelelo yexesha lonyaka, kwaye ngaphezu kwako konke, ukuphucula iinkqubo zokulumkisa kunye nokulungiselela uluntu oluselunxwemeni oluchaphazeleka yimpembelelo yezivuthuvuthu.
Amanani aqikelelweyo kunye nendima yamagama asemthethweni
Kwinqanaba lobungakanani, iimeko zokuqala ze- Ixesha leenkanyamba zaseAtlantiki zowama-2026 Zisondela kufutshane namaxabiso aphakathi, kunye neendlela ezisezantsi kancinci kwezinye iimodeli. Iqela leTropical Storm Risk, umzekelo, licebisa ezinye Izivuthuvuthu ezili-14 eziqanjwe ngamagama, izivuthuvuthu ezisi-7 kunye nezivuthuvuthu ezinkulu ezintathu, ehambelana neengxelo zembali zeso sidibi.
Ezinye izinto eziqikelelweyo, ezifana nezo zivela kwiinkonzo zemozulu zabucala, ziphakathi koluhlu olufanayo: phakathi kwezivuthuvuthu ezili-11 neli-16 eziqanjwe ngamagama, izivuthuvuthu ezi-4 ukuya kwezi-7, kunye nezivuthuvuthu ezinkulu ezi-2 ukuya kwezi-4. Ngokwendlela esebenzayo, la manani athetha ukuba Ixesha elixakekileyo kakhulu alilindelwanga.kodwa kwanele ukuba iinkqubo ezininzi zifikelele okanye zisondele kwiindawo ezinabantu abaninzi zaseCaribbean nakwiGulf of Mexico.
La Uluhlu lwamagama ezinkanyamba zaseTropiki eAtlantiki ngo-2026Olu luhlu, oluvunyiweyo yi-WMO kwaye lusetyenziswa yiNational Hurricane Center (NHC), luza kuqala ngo-Arthur luze luqhubeke noBertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, kunye noWilfred. La ngamagama achazwe kwangaphambili aphinda asetyenziswe rhoqo emva kweminyaka emithandathu, ngaphandle kwalawo anxulunyaniswa neenkanyamba ezitshabalalisayo, ezifana melissa, abarhoxiswa ngokusisigxina.
Ukusetyenziswa kwezi Amagama asemthethweni enza kube lula ukunxibelelana phakathi kweenkonzo zemozulu, amagunya okhuseleko loluntu, kunye noluntu. Endaweni yokubhekisa "kwisiphepho sasetropiki inombolo X," kusetyenziswa igama elicacileyo nelikhumbuleka lula, elinceda ukuqinisekisa ukuba izilumkiso kunye neebhulethini ziyaqondwa ngokukhawuleza kwaye ngaphandle kokungacaci.
Impembelelo enokubakho eMelika, kwiCaribbean nakwiGulf of Mexico
Nangona ingqwalasela yeendaba idla ngokujoliswa eMelika, Ixesha leenkanyamba zaseAtlantiki lika-2026 Kwakhona kubalulekile kwi ICaribbean kunye nonxweme lweGulf of MexicoLo mmandla unabantu abaninzi abasengozini yokuhlaselwa lunxweme, iziseko ezibalulekileyo, kunye nemisebenzi yezoqoqosho enxulumene nokhenketho kunye nokuloba. Iiarhente zokhuseleko loluntu kumazwe aseCaribbean naseMelika eseMbindi sele ziqalile ukuphonononga nokuhlaziya izicwangciso zazo zongxamiseko.
Izibikezelo zangaphambili zibonisa inani eliphantse libe liphakathi leenkqwithela kunye neenkanyamba, kodwa kunokwenzeka ukuba ezinye iinkqubo zingalandela iindlela ezichaphazela ngqo iziqithi zaseCaribbean, iYucatán Peninsula, iCentral America, okanye unxweme lweAtlantic lwase-US. Iingcali zikhumbula iziqendu zakutshanje apho, nangona inani lilonke leenkanyamba lalingaqhelekanga, inkanyamba enye okanye ezimbini zanele ukuchaza ixesha lonyaka ngenxa yobukhulu bazo kunye nomonakalo eziwubangeleyo.
Imibutho efana Iziko leNkanyamba leSizwe (NHC)Inkqubo yeSizwe yoKujonga iiNkanyamba zeTropical ye-NOAA igcina uqwalaselo oluqhubekayo lwamaza etropiki avela eNtshona Afrika, ukuphazamiseka kwiCaribbean, kunye neenkqubo zoxinzelelo oluphantsi ezinokuvela kwiGulf. Isitshixo sokunciphisa impembelelo yezi nkqubo sisaqhubeka nokuba... izilumkiso zakwangoko kunye neendlela zokuphendula ezicwangcisiweyo kakuhle, into ezinikele kakhulu kuyo umgudu ekulungiseleleni u-2026.
Okwangoku, amaziko akwicandelo lezolimo nolawulo lwamanzi anika ingqalelo ekhethekileyo kudibaniso olunokwenzeka lwe i-El Niño esebenzayo kunye notshintsho kwiipateni zemvulaOku kunokuchaphazela izityalo, amachibi, kunye nemithombo yamanzi kwimimandla exhomekeke kakhulu kwimvula yexesha elithile enxulumene namaza ashushu kunye neentsalela zeenkanyamba.
Iimveliso ezintsha ze-NHC zexesha lonyaka lika-2026
Ndijonge phambili kwixesha elizayo, IZiko leSizwe leeNkanyamba libhengeze iphakheji yophuculo kwiimveliso zayo zolwazi, ngenjongo yokuvumela amaziko kunye noluntu ukuba baqonde ngcono iingozi. Phakathi kwezinto ezintsha, kukho imephu entsha yokusebenza yekhowuni yendlela iinkanyamba zaseTropiki kunye nokwanda kwe izilumkiso zokunyuka kwesiphepho kwiindawo ezingaphezulu.
Ikhowuni yesiqhelo yokubikezela, esetyenziswe iminyaka, ibonisa indawo apho iziko lenkanyamba linokubakho khona kwiintsuku ezilandelayo, ngokusekelwe kwiimpazamo eziqhelekileyo zezoqikelelo zangaphambili. Ukususela ngo-2026, le khowuni yokusebenza iya kubandakanya Izilumkiso zesiphango saseTropiki kunye nezilumkiso zeenkanyamba kwiindawo ezingaphakathi elizwenikungekuphela nje kwimimandla eselunxwemeni, ukuze abantu abakude nonxweme babe nendawo ecacileyo yokubhekisela kwingozi enxulumene nemimoya enamandla.
Ukongeza, i-NHC iza kuyenza ifumaneke kuluntu inguqulelo yovavanyo yekhowuni Ngokusekelwe ekusebenziseni ii-ellipses ezisekelwe kwindawo nganye yokuqikelela, endaweni yezangqa zemveli, olu tshintsho luya kugubungela ngcono uluhlu lweendlela ezinokwenzeka zokudibanisa isantya senkanyamba kunye necala, lwandise indawo yokungaqiniseki ukuze ibandakanye malunga Iipesenti ezingama-90 zeendlela ezinokwenzeka xa kuthelekiswa ne-67% eqhelekileyo.
Ngexesha lesigaba sovavanyo, kunokubakho ukulibaziseka ngamanye amaxesha ekupapashweni kwegrafu, kodwa injongo ephambili kukubonelela abaphathi beemeko ezingxamisekileyo kunye nabemi ngesixhobo esibonakalayo esihambelana ngakumbi nenyani yezibikezelo, ngakumbi esiluncedo xa iindlela ezinokubakho zichaphazela iindawo ezininzi ezinabantu.
Olunye uphawu olutsha olukhulu kukwandiswa kwe iimveliso zokunyuka kwesaqhwithi ukuya eHawaii, okwangoku ebegxile kakhulu kunxweme olusempuma ye-United States, kwiGulf of Mexico, ePuerto Rico, nakwiZiqithi zase-US Virgin. Ezi zilumkiso zinokwenzeka ziya kwenza kube lula ukuqikelela amanqanaba amanzi kunye nokunyuka okukhulu kwesivuthuvuthu kwiiyure ezingama-72 ngaphambi kokuba kubekho impembelelo, ukudibanisa idatha kwindlela, amandla omoya, kunye nemitha yomoya onamandla enkanyamba.
Ukulungiselela kunye nezifundo zamva nje zexesha elingaqinisekanga
Iingcali ziyavuma ukuba, nangona Amathuba abonisa ukuba kukho umsebenzi ophakathi. Ngowama-2026, ukulungela kufuneka kuhlale kukwinqanaba eliphezulu. I-NOAA kunye ne-WMO baphinda umyalezo osele uyinto eqhelekileyo: "Kuthatha isivunguvungu esinye kuphela" ukuze ixesha lonyaka lihlale likhumbuleka kulo mmandla.
Iminyaka yakutshanje ibonise ukuba nangona iphantsi kwempembelelo ye-El Niño, iziqendu ezinomdla kakhulu zinokwenzeka ukuba Amaqondo obushushu e-Atlantic aphezulu ngokungaqhelekangaNgokufanayo, amaxesha onyaka anenani elincinci leenkqubo angabandakanya isivuthuvuthu esinye, esinamandla kakhulu esibangela umonakalo omkhulu kwindawo ethile, nto leyo eqinisa ukubaluleka kwezicwangciso zokufuduka, unxibelelwano lomngcipheko, kunye nokukhuselwa kweziseko ezibalulekileyo.
Kule meko, iinkonzo zemozulu zesizwe, ii-arhente zokhuseleko loluntu kunye noorhulumente basekhaya base ICaribbean, iMbindi Melika, iMexico kunye neMelika Baqinisa iinkqubo zabo zokujonga, baphucula izixhobo, kwaye bahlaziya iindlela zokusebenza. Ulungelelwaniso phakathi kwamazwe kunye nokwabelana ngedatha ngexesha langempela kuya kuxatyiswa ngakumbi, ingakumbi xa inkqubo efanayo inokuchaphazela amazwe aliqela ngokulandelelana.
Ixesha leenkanyamba lika-2026 lichazwa njengexesha apho isayensi yemozulu, ukujonga ngexesha langempela, kunye nolawulo lomngcipheko Kufuneka zihambelane: nangona uqikelelo lubonisa ukuba kukho umsebenzi ongaphantsi kakhulu, indibaniselwano ye-El Niño, iingxaki ezinokubakho kubushushu kwiAtlantiki kunye nokwanda kokuvezwa kweendawo ezikunxweme kufuna ukuba sihlale silumkile kwaye sicinge ukuba, kwakhona, isitshixo siya kuba kukulindela kunye nokukwazi ukusabela kuyo nayiphi na inkanyamba ekwaziyo ukuzilungiselela.
