La 2025 ixesha lenkanyamba yeAtlantiki ifikelele esiphelweni ngolungelelwaniso olumangalisayo njengoko luyi-paradoxical: umsebenzi ngaphakathi kwamaxabiso alindelekileyo kwinani elipheleleyo leenkqubo, ngokohlalutyo lwe umsebenzi ophakathi kwisitya, kodwa nge umlinganiselo ophezulu ngokungaqhelekanga weenkanyamba ezimandla kakhulu Kwaye, ngexesha elifanayo, ngaphandle kwempembelelo enye yenkanyamba e-United States. Kwi-basin xa iyonke, ixesha livelise amanani awela kwi-avareji yemozulu, kodwa kunye neziganeko ezigqithisileyo eziye zaphula iirekhodi zembali.
Ehlabathini lonke, izazi ngemozulu ziyayichaza loo nto Yayilixesha "elingaqhelekanga" kwaye kunzima ukungena kwiipateni zakudalaKwakukho iinkanyamba ezimbalwa kunokuba bekuxelwe kwangaphambili, kodwa uninzi lwafikelela kwiindidi eziphezulu kwaye lwavelisa amandla e-cyclonic eyongezelekayo ngokucacileyo adlula oko bekulindeleke ngeenkqubo ezimbalwa. Ngaphaya koko, ukuziphatha kwe-atmospheric kwaphambukisa inxalenye enkulu yezitshingitshane ukuya kulwandlekazi oluvulekileyo okanye iCaribbean, inciphisa impembelelo ethe ngqo kwilizwekazi laseMntla Melika kodwa yayandisa iziphumo kwiziqithi ezininzi-imeko ethe ngqo I-NOAA yayilindele kuqikelelo lwabo jikelele.
Lilonke: I-13 yezaqhwithi ezichaziweyo kunye nobunzulu obungalinganiyo
Bakha kwiAtlantiki I-13 ebizwa ngokuba yizaqhwithi phakathi kwe-1 kaJuni kunye ne-30 kaNovembakanye kuluhlu oluphakathi koko kuthathwa njengesiqhelo kuthotho lwamva nje lweklimati, into ehambelana nohlalutyo lwemozulu. Ixesha lenkanyamba yeAtlantiki. Yabo, Abahlanu bafikelele kwimo yenkanyamba kwaye ezine zafikelela kwimo enkulu yenkanyamba (udidi lwe-3 okanye ngaphezulu), inani elidlula umyinge wembali weenkanyamba ezintathu eziqatha ngexesha ngalinye.
Ulawulo lwaselwandle lwase-United States kunye ne-Atmospheric (NOAA) yayilindele ixesha lonyaka elingaphezu kwesiqhelo, phakathi kwe-13 kunye ne-19 lezaqhwithi ezithiwe thaca naphakathi kwe-6 kunye ne-10 yezitshingitshane, ezininzi kuzo zinokuba namandla kakhulu. Uqikelelo lwaluchanekile malunga nenqanaba lamandla akhutshwe ziinkanyamba.Kodwa kungekhona kwi-classic distribution phakathi kwenani leenkqubo kunye namandla: kwakukho iinkanyamba ezimbalwa kunokuba zilindelwe, nangona phantse zonke ziziphatha njengenyaniso "i-heavyweights".
Izaqhwithi ezigama zibandakanya UAndrea, uBarry, uChantal, uDexter, uFernand, JerryUKaren noLorenzo njengeenkanyamba ezingazange zifikelele kubukhulu obukhulu, kunye UErin, uGabrielle, uHumberto, uImelda noMelissa njengeenkanyamba. Kwezi, ezine zahlelwa njengezona ziphambili, kwaye ezintathu zafikelela kudidi lwesi-5, elona nqanaba liphezulu kwisikali seSaffir-Simpson.
Ixesha lonyaka nalo libone a unqumamo oluphawuleka kakhulu kwezona veki zisebenza kakhulu kwimozuluPhakathi kokuphela kuka-Agasti naphakathi kuSeptemba, iAtlantiki yahlala ithe cwaka. Oku kuthomalalisa kuhluke kabukhali kunye nesantya sokugqibela sika-Okthobha, esilawulwa kukuqiniswa okukhawulezileyo kweMelissa, okugxininise uninzi lweempembelelo ezibi kakhulu zonyaka-into eyenzekayo edibana ifuthe lezaqhwithi kwiindawo ezisengozini.
Unyaka ngaphandle kwenkanyamba e-United States, kodwa iyingozi kwiCaribbean
Enye yezona nyaniso kuthethwa ngazo kweli xesha lonyaka kukuba, Okwesihlandlo sokuqala kwishumi leminyaka, akuzange kubekho sitshingitshane esifike kwilizwekazi laseUnited States.Ekuphela kwesaqhwithi esibizwe ngokuba yiTropical Storm Chantal, eyangena ngoJulayi ngokusebenzisa iCarolinas kunye nemimoya ethobekileyo kwaye yabangela izikhukula zendawo kunye nokubulawa kwabantu, kodwa ngaphandle kokufikelela kwimo yenkanyamba.
Ngokutsho komlawuli we-NOAA, UNeil JacobsOku kuphumla “yayilikhefu elifuneka kakhulu” kwilizwe elisandula kufika kwishumi leminyaka elineempembelelo zenkanyamba ezingaphezu kweshumi elinesibini. Nangona kunjalo, ukungabikho kweempembelelo ezithe ngqo e-United States akuguquleli kwixesha elibi.Izitshingitshane ezininzi zibangele amaza anamandla, izandyondyo zesaqhwithi kunye nemisinga eyonakalisa iziseko zophuhliso lonxweme kunxweme olusempuma, ngelixa ezona ziphumo zimbi zazigxininise kwiintlanga zaseCaribbean ezingabamelwane.
Iingcali zinxulumanisa le pateni yeendlela zokuhamba i-anomalies kumjikelezo we-atmospheric kunye notshintsho kwimimoya ephezuluEzi zinto, ezinxulumene ngokuyinxenye nokufudumala kweArctic kunye nokuqhelaniswa nejet stream, beziya kubangela ukuba iinkanyamba ezininzi ziphinde zibuyele ngasempuma okanye zihlale zibheke ngasemazantsi, zithintele indlela ethe ngqo eya eFlorida okanye kwiGulf of Mexico, kodwa ziveze ngokupheleleyo amazwe anjengeJamaica, Haiti, neCuba, njengoko kubonisiwe kuhlalutyo lwelizwe. Imingcipheko kunye nemingeni eFlorida nakwiCaribbean.
En IYurophu kunye nonxweme olusempuma lweAtlantikiIintsalela zezaqhwithi ezininzi ziye zakhokelela ikakhulu kwiziqendu zamaza aphezulu, ukudumba, kunye nemvula ethile eyayanyaniswa neenkqubo zangaphandle, ngaphandle kokuba nempembelelo yenkanyamba ethe ngqo. Imimandla efana neAzores kunye neenxalenye zomntla-mpuma weAtlantiki yabona ezinye zezi nkqubo zidlula kude, zaguqulwa zaba ziinkqubo zoxinzelelo olusezantsi lwesibanzi.
U-Erin, uHumberto kunye no-Imelda: iinkanyamba ezinamandla kodwa ubukhulu becala zaselwandle
Kuluhlu lweenkanyamba zexesha lonyaka, Erin Wayengowokuqala ukufikelela kudidi lwe-5 kunye nelinye lamatyala e ukuqina ngokukhawuleza okugqithisileyo ayizange ibhalwe kwiAtlantiki. Kwiiyure nje ze-24, yahamba ukusuka kwiNqanaba loku-1, kunye nemimoya emalunga ne-120 km / h, ukuya kwiNqanaba ye-5 enemimoya esondele kwi-260 km / h, kwaye iphinde ibhalise enye yehla ngokukhawuleza kuxinzelelo lwe-atmospheric ngosuku olunye kwisitya, uphawu lwe iinkanyamba ezikhulayo ezinamandla.
Nangona amandla akhe, UErin ubukhulu becala wayehlala elwandle.ukuvelisa amaza anamandla kunye nemisinga yokukrazula kunxweme olusempuma ye-United States kunye nokuchaphazela ukuhamba, kodwa ngaphandle kwempembelelo ethe ngqo kwiindawo ezinkulu ezihlala abantu. Iimeko ezifanayo zenzeke nge Humberto e Imelda, ethe yafikelela okanye yasondela kuxinzelelo olukhulu lwenkanyamba kodwa yaphela ibuyela kude nelizwekazi ngenxa yeepateni zomoya ezingaqhelekanga.
Izazi ngemozulu ziyayigxininisa loo nto Oku kudityaniswa kwezitshingitshane ezinamandla kakhulu kunye neetrajectories ezintle ze-United States Oku akufanele kudidaniswe nophawu lomngcipheko ophantsi wexesha elide. Ixesha lonyaka lingena kumkhwa obanzi apho iAtlantiki ngoku ifumene amaxesha alithoba okugqibela alishumi angaphezulu komndilili wenkanyamba, eqhutywa ngamaqondo obushushu olwandle ashushu ngendlela engaqhelekanga kunye neepateni ezifana neLa Niña kwiPasifiki, ethanda ukuthanda uphuhliso lwenkanyamba kwindawo yeAtlantiki.
Ukuziphatha kwezi nkqubo kukwavelise iziqendu ezinomdla, ezifana ne intsebenziswano esondeleyo phakathi kukaHumberto no-Imelda, ethe yasondela enye kwenye kunayo nayiphi na enye iperi yezaqhwithi ezijongwe ngedatha yesathelayithi ethembekileyo, okanye ukuphambuka kwetrajectory okubangelwa koko kubizwa ngokuba Isiphumo seFujiwharaapho inkanyamba enkulu ilungisa intshukumo yenye, inkanyamba ebuthathaka ebekwe kufutshane nayo.
Nangona ezi zijijeko zingalindelekanga, ibhalansi yokugqibela iqinisekisa ukuba Uninzi lomonakalo wabantu kunye noqoqosho lwalugxininise kwiziqithi zeCaribbean nakuMbindi MerikaNgelixa i-US East Coast kunye neGulf bafumana unyaka ozolileyo ngokungaqhelekanga xa kuthelekiswa nento ebiyinto eqhelekileyo ukusukela ngo-2015, kunye nesidingo Ukhuseleko loluntu luqinisa izenzo Kwacaca ngakumbi.
UMelissa: inkanyamba eyaphula irekhodi ephawule ixesha lonyaka
Ukuba kukho igama elinye elishwankathela ixesha lenkanyamba lika-2025, lilo melissaLe nkanyamba yafikelela kwi Udidi 5 olunomoya oqikelelwayo ukuya kuma-295 km/h yaza yaba sesinye sezona nkanyamba zakha zarekhodwa kwiAtlantiki. I-World Meteorological Organisation iyibize ngokuba "sisivunguvungu senkulungwane" saseJamaica, kwaye uhlalutyo olulandelayo luyibeka njengenkanyamba yesithathu enamandla kakhulu kwimbali yolwandle lweAtlantiki.
Inkanyamba eyenziwe kwiCaribbean ngasekupheleni kukaOktobha kunye ifumene ukuqina okukhawulezileyo okumangalisayoYaqina ukusuka kwisiphango setropiki ukuya kwinkanyamba ephezulu kakhulu kwisithuba esingaphantsi kweentsuku ezintathu, njengoko yayihamba kancinane emazantsi eJamaica phezu kwamanzi ashushu ngokungaqhelekanga. Le ndlela icothayo igcine izandyondyo zemvula kunye nemimoya ebhudla ngamandla kangangeentsuku kwindawo encinci yeCaribbean.
Xa uMelissa wabetha Entshona Jamaica nge28 kaOkthobhaYenze njalo ngemimoya eqhubekayo malunga ne-185 mph (malunga ne-295 km / h), ehambelana neerekhodi zembali ezifana neNkanyamba yoSuku lomSebenzi we-1935. I-probe eqaliswe yi-NOAA indiza yomzingeli wenkanyamba ngaphakathi kwi-eyewall yalinganisa i-gust malunga ne-252 mph (ngaphezu kwe-400 km / h) kwindawo ephantsi, ngoku ithathwa njengeyona santya esiphezulu somoya esibhalwe ngokuthe ngqo kwi-cyclone.
Emva kokuwela iJamaica, UMelissa waqhubeka nokuchaphazela iHaiti, impuma yeCuba, kunye nezinye iindawo zeCaribbean.Ngaphandle kwemimoya ebhudla ngamandla kunye nokuthontelana okukhulu kokufuma, izikhukhula, ukudilika komhlaba, kunye nokutshatyalaliswa kweziseko ezingundoqo kwasasazeka kulo lonke ummandla, ngokukodwa imimandla yasemaphandleni kunye nonxweme esele isengozini kwizinto.
Ukuhlatywa kwabantu kunye nezoqoqosho kubi kakhulu: kuqikelelwa Bangaphezu kwekhulu ababhubhileyo, ingakumbi eJamaica naseHaitikwaye yonakalisa ukuba imibutho eyahlukeneyo kunye namaziko ohlalutyo, afana ne-Global Climate Centre ye-AccuWeather, iqikelela kumashumi eebhiliyoni zeedola. EJamaica kuphela, ezinye iimvavanyo zangaphambili zibeke ilahleko ngaphezulu kwe-10.000 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, ngelixa ezinye iingqikelelo zengingqi ziphakamisa iindleko ezipheleleyo zentlekele ukuya ngaphezulu kwe-48.000 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Iimpembelelo kuMbindi Merika nakwiMpuma yeAtlantiki
Nangona ingqalelo yeendaba igxile kwimpembelelo ethe ngqo eJamaica naseHaiti, Eminye imimandla yeCaribbean kunye noMbindi Merika nayo yabandezeleka ngokungangqalanga ngexesha lonyakaImimoya yenkanyamba kunye nolwandle olunamandla kakhulu olunxulumene noMelissa luchaphazele iindawo zaseCuba, iRiphabhlikhi yaseDominican, nePanama, apho umonakalo omkhulu wepropati kunye nokungabikho kwexesha elide kweenkonzo ezisisiseko kuxelwe.
En icosta RicaNgokomzekelo, iNkanyamba uMelissa ayizange ihle, kodwa ubukho bayo kwintshona yeCaribbean yayinempembelelo ecacileyo kwimozulu. INational Meteorological Institute (IMN) ithatha ixesha lonyaka kulo mmandla njenge... Yahlala phakathi koluhlu oluqhelekileyo kwinani leenkqubongeenkanyamba ezili-12 eziye zaphembelela indawo eyingqongileyo ngendlela ethile okanye enye. Nangona kunjalo, ukusasazwa okudityaniswa noMelissa kusebenze kakhulu uMmandla we-Intertropical Convergence Zone kwaye kwaqala. ingxelo yemvula ngenyanga ka-Okthobha.
Uninzi lwezikhululo zemozulu zaseCosta Rican zirekhode eyona mvula inkulu ngo-Okthobha kwirekhodi, ngemvula iyonke Bangaphaya kwe-500 mm kwiindawo zePasifiki nakwilizwe. Amagama afana Nicoya, Parrita, San Pedro, Alajuela, Liberia, Puntarenas okanye Quepos Ezi ziphakathi kweendawo apho imvula yenyanga iye yaphula iirekhodi, ebonisa indlela inkanyamba ebekwe kumakhulu eekhilomitha ukusuka kude inokulungelelanisa ngokupheleleyo ipateni yemvula yelizwe.
I-IMN igxininisa ukuba, ngaphandle kokuqina kwezinye iziqephu zemvulaIxesha lonyaka liphelile eCosta Rica ngeempembelelo eziqulethweyo xa kuthelekiswa nezinye, iminyaka esebenzayo kakhulu. I-arhente igxininisa indima yokuguquguquka kwemozulu kunye neepatheni ezithile zomoya ezithi, kunye neemeko ezingaphezulu ezifana nezo zamaxesha anzima kakhulu, zibangele inani elilinganiselweyo lezaqhwithi ngo-2025, kodwa enye yaphenjelelwa kakhulu yinkqubo enye okanye ezimbini ezinamandla kakhulu.
Kulo IMpuma yeAtlantiki kunye neendawo ezikufutshane neYurophuImiphumo iye yaba yeyokungangqalanga nangakumbi, okubangele ukukhukhumala, izaqhwithi eziselunxwemeni, kunye nokuhamba kweenkqubo zoxinzelelo oluphantsi olwaqala njengezaqhwithi zetropikhi okanye ezikwitropiki. Ezi ntlobo zentsebenziswano zisebenza njengesikhumbuzo sokuba, nangona iinkanyamba aziqhelekanga ukufikelela kwi-Peninsula yase-Iberia okanye kwilizwekazi laseYurophu kunye nesakhiwo sazo se-tropical, sinokuphembelela ukuguquguquka kwezaqhwithi zasekwindla ezichaphazela iSpeyin kunye namanye amazwe ajikelezileyo.
Ixesha "elingaqhelekanga": unqumamo encotsheni kunye nokubuyela emva kwexesha
Iingcali zemozulu ezikwiitropikhi ziyavumelana noko U-2025 uya kukhunjulwa njengonyaka ongaqhelekangaUkongeza kumanani ahlabayo, kukho isimilo sexeshana esingaqhelekanga: emva kwesiqalo esisebenzayo ngoJuni nangoJulayi, isitya sibe namava malunga neeveki ezintathu ngaphandle kokuna kwemvula ngexesha eliphakamileyo lemozulu, ukusuka ekupheleni kuka-Agasti ukuya kumbindi kaSeptemba.
Olu hlobo lokuvalwa phakathi kwexesha eliphakamileyo alukho ngaphambili, kodwa lunqabile kakhulu. Uhlalutyo lwangaphambili lukhomba indibaniselwano ye Umoya owomileyo kwimpuma yeAtlantiki, uthuli lweSahara, kunye neepateni zokucheba umoya ezingathandekiyo ukuze amaza etropikhi aphuma eAfrika akwazi ukulungelelanisa abe ziinkanyamba ezichazwe kakuhle. Isiphumo yaba lixesha elizolileyo ngokumangalisayo, nangona amaqondo obushushu olwandle aqhubeka ebonisa amaxabiso ngaphezulu komndilili.
Noko ke, ukuzola akuzange kuphele. Ukususela kwisiqingatha sesibini sikaSeptemba kwaye, ngaphezu kwakho konke, ngo-Oktobha, umoya watshintsha kwaye Ixesha lonyaka ligxininiswe kumdlalo wokugqibela onzimaUninzi lwamandla onyaka aqokelelweyo e-cyclonic enziwe kwezo veki zintandathu zokugqibela, eziye zabona uninzi lwezaqhwithi zodidi oluphezulu, kubandakanya nokunyuka kukaMelissa ukuya kwicandelo lesi-5.
Oku kubuyela emva naphambili kukhokelele abaphandi abaninzi ukuba banyanzelise ukuba, Kwimozulu eshushu, akwanelanga ukubala nje inani lezaqhwithi.Iya isiya ibaluleke kakhulu indlela ezisasazwa ngayo ngokuhamba kwexesha, ukuba bubuphi ubunzima abafikelela kuzo kwaye zeziphi iindlela abazilandelayo, kuba ixesha lonyaka elinenani “eliqhelekileyo” leenkanyamba linokukhokelela kwiimpembelelo ezingazange zibonwe ngaphambili ukuba enye yazo ingqamana neendawo ezinabemi nezisesichengeni.
KwiYurophu, ngakumbi eSpain, ezi ntlobo zamaxesha onyaka ziqinisekisa imfuneko iliso elibukhali lokuvela kwezitshingitshane kunye neentsalela zazoNgokukodwa ekwindla, xa izivunguvungu zangaphambili zingakwazi ukudibanisa kwi-polar jet stream kwaye zibangele izaqhwithi zemvula nomoya kunye nemiphumo ephawulekayo kunxweme lweAtlantiki, nangona ngaphandle kobundlobongela obuqhelekileyo be-tropical cyclone kwisigaba saso esivuthiweyo.
Iimodeli zeArtificial Intelligence kunye noqikelelo oluphuculweyo
Enye into efanelekileyo kweli xesha lonyaka ibe kukutsiba okusemgangathweni kwi iindlela zokuqikelela. Okokuqala, i Iziko leNkanyamba leSizwe le-NOAA (i-NHC) lifake iimodeli ezisebenzayo ezisekelwe kubuNgqondo beArtificial. kwiingqikelelo zabo zendlela kunye nobunzulu. Ezi zixhobo, eziqeqeshwe ngogcino-lwazi olukhulu lwezitshingitshane ezidlulileyo kunye neemeko ze-atmospheri, zisetyenziswe njengesikhokelo esongezelelweyo ecaleni kweemodeli zamanani eziqhelekileyo.
Ngokutsho kwamagosa e-NHC, ukudibanisa zombini iindlela kuvunyelwe lindela, kwiintsuku ezininzi kwangaphambili, ukuqina ngokukhawuleza kwezinye zezona zitshingitshane ziyingozikuquka noMelissa. Kwimeko ethile yale nkanyamba, iziko lase-US lakwazi ukwenza iprojekthi ngokuchaneka okukhulu kwendlela eya kukhokelela ekubeni ichaphazele iJamaica, inciphisa ukutenxa kokugqibela ukuya kumashumi ambalwa eekhilomitha ukusuka kwindlela ebixelwe kwangaphambili kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ngaphambili.
Abaphandi abaye bahlalutya ukusebenza kweemodeli ngexesha lonyaka babonisa ukuba Ii-algorithms ze-AI ziye zakhuphisana nentloko-intloko kunye nezinye zezona nkqubo zisekiweyo zokuqikelela.kokubini kwi-trajectory kunye nokuqina. Nangona kusekho indlela yokudibanisa ngokupheleleyo kwimisebenzi yemihla ngemihla, iziphumo ze-2025 zibhekwa njengesibonakaliso esicacileyo samandla abo okuphucula ukulindela iziganeko ezimbi kakhulu.
Ukujonga phambili kwiYurophu, oku kuphuculwa koqikelelo Ibaluleke kakhulu ekulandeleni iinkanyamba zangaphambili enokuthi ibuyele kumjelo wejethi kwaye ichaphazele imozulu kumntla-mpuma weAtlantiki. Ukuba neendlela ezichaneke ngakumbi kunceda ukuvavanya ngcono umngcipheko wokudumba okunamandla, imvula enkulu, okanye imimoya ehambelana nezaqhwithi zetropikhi ezithi ngamanye amaxesha zifike kwiPeninsula yase-Iberia okanye kwindawo esentshona yelizwekazi.
Ngokuchasene nomva we kutshintsha kwe mozuluUluntu lwezenzululwazi lugxininisa ukuba ixesha ngalinye lenkanyamba kufuneka liqondwe kungekuphela nje njengeseti yamanani, kodwa njengeqhekeza elinye lephazili enkulu apho amaqondo obushushu olwandle, iipateni ze-atmospheric yehlabathi, kunye nokuguquguquka kwendalo kudityaniswe ukuvelisa iimeko ezintsonkothileyo. Ixesha lonyaka elisandula kuphela ukuphela lishiya umxube wesiqabu kweminye imimandla kunye nentshabalalo kweminye, kwaye yomeleza umbono wokuba ukucwangcisa kunye nokuziqhelanisa kuya kuba ngundoqo kwiminyaka ezayo.
Ngokuphela ngokusemthethweni kwexesha lenkanyamba, isitya seAtlantiki singena kwisigaba sokuzola okubonakalayo, kodwa amava ka-2025 abonisa ukuba Unyaka unokuqwalaselwa ngokwemozulu "eqhelekileyo" kwaye usabhalisa iinkanyamba ezaphula irekhodi kunye nomonakalo ongaqhelekanga kwiindawo ezithile.Kumazwe akwi-basin, ukusuka kwiCaribbean ukuya eNtshona Yurophu, isifundo esi sishiya sicacile: kunokuba sigxininise kuphela kwinani leezaqhwithi, kubalulekile ukuqwalasela indlela, phi, kwaye yintoni ephuhlisayo.
