I-Antarctica lilizwekazi elibanda kakhulu kangangokuba bambalwa abantu abakwaziyo ukuyityelela, kwaye bambalwa kakhulu abanethamsanqa lokubeka unyawo komnye wemikhenkce yalo, efana neThwaites, ekwintshona yelizwekazi. Omnye wabambalwa abaye bafumana eli lungelo nguKnut Christianson, isazi ngomkhenkce kwiYunivesithi yaseWashington (eUnited States), ozinikele ekufundisiseni ngalo ukuze abone kwangaphambili imiphumo yokunyibilika kwawo emhlabeni wonke.
Into efunyenweyo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ibonakala ngathi libali le-apocalyptic kunenyani, kodwa inyaniso kukuba isinika okuninzi ekufuneka sicinge ngako. Ngokutsho kuka-Ian Howat, i-glaciologist e-Ohio, "Ukuba kuya kubakho intlekele yemozulu, kunokwenzeka ukuba iqale eThwaites." Kodwa kutheni?
Umkhenkce we-Antarctic uyanyibilika ngendlela efanayo nendlu yamakhadi; koko kukuthi, ihlala izinzile ide ityhale. Nangona le nkqubo ingeke yenzeke ngobusuku obunye, kwisithuba seshumi leminyaka, ilahleko yeThwaites Glacier iya kumisa umkhenkce oseleyo kwintshona yelizwekazi. Nje ukuba wenze, iya kubabeka emngciphekweni bonke abo bahlala ngaphakathi kweekhilomitha ezingama-80 zonxweme, nto leyo ethetha ukuba phantse isiqingatha sabemi behlabathi siya kuchaphazeleka.
Uqikelelo lucebisa ukuba amaqondo olwandle anokunyuka ukuya kuthi ga kwiimitha ezintathu kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi, ukuya kuthi ga kwiimitha ezine kwiindawo eziselunxwemeni ezifana neNew York neBoston.
Kude kube nini ngaphambi kokuba oku kwenzeke? Ngoku, ilizwekazi, elalikade liphumle, “ngoku liyashukuma,” watsho uMark Serreze, umlawuli weZiko leeNkcukacha zeSikhephu saseU.S. Ngowama-2002, ishelufu yomkhenkce yaseLarsen B yanyibilika, nto leyo eyabangela ukuba imikhenkce esemva kwawo ingene elwandle ngokukhawuleza ngokuphindwe kasibhozo kunangaphambili. Imeko efanayo inokwenzeka nge Iqonga likaLarsen C., enobude obuziikhilomitha ezili-160. Ukongeza, i ULarsen C uyanyibilika yinkxalabo ekhulayo, kwaye inxulunyaniswe nokungazinzi jikelele komkhenkce kulo mmandla.
Ngokwemilinganiselo eyenziwe ngu-Eric Rignot weNASA kunye no-Ian Joughin weYunivesithi yaseWashington, Inkqubo yokuphelisa uzinzo sele iqhuba kwi-Thwaites Glacier.
I-Antarctica ayijonganga kuphela umngeni wokunyibilika komkhenkce, kodwa ikwachatshazelwa kukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu. Uphando lwakutsha nje lubonise ukuba Umkhenkce wolwandle lwasebusika lwase-Antarctic ifikelele kwirekhodi layo eliphantsi, isigidi seekhilomitha zeekhilomitha ngaphantsi kwe-2022 amanqanaba, ubukhulu obukhulu kune-Egypt, ngokutsho kweNkqubo yeZizwe eziManyeneyo.
Olu tshintsho lube nempembelelo enamandla kwizilwanyana zasekuhlaleni. "Ngenxa yokuhla ngokukhawuleza komkhenkce wolwandle, i-emperor penguin yafumana ukusilela okungazange kubonwe ngaphambili kulo nyaka uphelileyo, ibeka isoyikiso esinzulu kwi-ecosystem ye-Antarctic," iarhente yalumkisa. Imifanekiso yesathelayithi efunyenwe yi-U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Centre ibonisa ukuba owona mlinganiselo uphakamileyo womkhenkce ojikeleze i-Antarctica ufikelele kweyona ndawo iphantsi kweyakhe yarekhodwa.
Ingxelo yangaphambili yamiselwa ngo-1986, xa umlinganiselo wonyaka ophezulu womkhenkce we-Antarctic wafikelela kwi-17.99 yezigidi zeekhilomitha zeekhilomitha. NgoSeptemba ka-2023, umlinganiselo wonyaka ophakamileyo we-16.96 yezigidi zeekhilomitha zeekhilomitha kuphela warekhodwa. Ukulahleka komkhenkce wolwandle kuyothusa kwaye kufuna ingqalelo ekhawulezileyo.
Iingcali zigxininisa ukuba ukunyibilika kwe-West Antarctica kunye nokunyuka okubangelwa kwinqanaba lolwandle ngoku "akunakuphepheka." Noko ke, olunye uhlolisiso lubonisa ukuba ukugcina ubushushu behlabathi bungaphantsi kwe-1.5 ngokukaCelsius kunokucothisa le nkqubo, nto leyo enika abantu abahlala elunxwemeni ukuya kutsho kwiminyaka engama-50 ukuba baqhelane noko. Ukuze uqonde ngcono le ngxaki, unokutyelela inqaku kwi kwenzeka ntoni xa umkhenkce unyibilika e-Antarctica.
Ukulinganisa okwenziwa yi UPhando lwaseBritane lwe-Antarctic (BAS) bonisa ukuba ukunyibilika komkhenkce weWest Antarctic kunye nokunyuka komphakamo wolwandle akusengombuzo othi "ukuba" kodwa "ngokukhawuleza kangakanani." Ababhali, uKaitlin Naughten, uPaul Holland, kunye noJan De Rydt, basebenzise ikhompyuter enkulu yelizwe lase-UK ukwenza olu qikelelo. Kwimeko engcono kakhulu, ngokunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu ehlabathi nge-1.5 degrees ngaphezu kwamanqanaba angaphambi koshishino, umkhenkce onyibilikayo uya kunyuka ngokukhawuleza kathathu kunokwenkulungwane yama-XNUMX, okukhokelela ekunyukeni komgangatho wolwandle malunga neemitha ezintlanu, okuchaphazela izigidi zabantu abahlala kufuphi nonxweme.
Ngaphaya koko, ukunyibilika komkhenkce we-Antarctic akuyi kukhawulezisa nje ukunyuka komphakamo wolwandle, kodwa kuya kutshintsha kwakhona. imisinga yolwandle ephambili elawula imozulu yehlabathi kwaye iya kuba nefuthe elibi kwi-East Antarctica, apho malunga ne-90% yomkhenkce welizwekazi igcinwa. Oku kunokukhokelela kutshintsho olubi lwemozulu, kunye neziphumo zehlabathi. Ngoko ke, i Ukunyibilika kwe-Antarctica ikwimeko emaxongo echaphazela wonke umntu.
Ngokutsho kukaNaughten, "Idatha yethu ibonisa ukuba siphulukene nolawulo lokunyibilika kwe-Ice Sheet yaseNtshona ye-Antarctic. Ukuyigcina ikwimeko efana naleyo yayikumashumi eminyaka eyadlulayo, bekuya kuba yimfuneko ukuba kuthathelwe amanyathelo ngotshintsho lwemozulu kwiminyaka eyadlulayo. Nangona kunjalo, into yokuba sinokuyixela kwangaphambili le meko inika uluntu ixesha elingakumbi lokuziqhelanisa nokunyuka komphakamo wolwandle okuzayo, okubalulekileyo ekulungiseleleni uluntu.
Undoqo uxhomekeke kwindlela uluntu olusabela ngayo elunxwemeni. Ngesaziso seminyaka engama-50 sokuziqhelanisa, Kukho ithuba elikhulu lokunciphisa umonakalo. Oku kunokubandakanya ukufuduswa kwabantu abasesichengeni kunye nokulungiswa kweziseko ezingundoqo ezibalulekileyo kwiindawo ezithandwa zizikhukula. Sekunjalo, oku akuphelisi imfuneko yokunciphisa izinto ezikhutshwayo ukuze kuthintelwe iziphumo yokutshintsha kwemozulu gqithisa nangakumbi.
Umba owothusayo wokunyibilika komkhenkce e-Antarctica yindlela otshintsha ngayo i-ecology yalo mmandla. Njengoko umkhenkce unyibilika, amachibi anamanzi acwengileyo ayakhula kwiindawo ebezikade zigqunywe ngumkhenkce. La machibi anokuba nefuthe kwindlela amanzi ahamba ngayo kwilizwekazi naselwandle, nto leyo enokutshintsha imisinga yolwandle kwaye, ngenxa yoko, imozulu yehlabathi. Ukungena nzulu kwesi siphumo, siyakumema ukuba ufunde malunga ukwakheka kwamachibi aluhlaza e-Antarctica.
Utshintsho kwi-ecology lukwachaphazela izilwanyana kunye nezityalo. Ngokunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu, iindidi ezifana noonombombiya, iintini, nezinye izilwanyana ezixhomekeke kumkhenkce wolwandle zichaphazeleka kanobom. Ukunyamalala kwendawo yazo yendalo kunokukhokelela ekuphelisweni kweentlobo ezininzi zezinto eziphilayo kunye nokungalingani kwi-ecosystem ye-Antarctic. Imeko iyaxhalabisa kwaye ifuna ukuqwalaselwa ngokukhawuleza.
Ukutshintsha kombala e-Antarctica kuye kwaba yinto yokufunda. Uphando lwakutsha nje lubonise ukuba i-Antarctic Peninsula ifumana ukwanda kwezityalo, into ephawulekayo ebonisa impembelelo yokutshintsha kwemozulu. Ngo-1986, utyani lwalungaphantsi kwe-square kilometer enye, kwaye namhlanje lukhule lwaya kutsho kwi-12 square kilometers. Oku kwanda ubukhulu becala bubulembu, bukhatshwa bubulebe kunye neentlobo eziqhelaniswe nengqele egqithisileyo.
Iingcali zenzululwazi ziye zaqaphela ukuba ukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu kummandla kuye kwakhawuleza kunomlinganiselo wehlabathi jikelele, ukuvumela Uhlaza luyachuma kwindawo eyayikade inzima ngokwembali. Esi siganeko asiyonguquko yenkangeleko yomhlaba kuphela, kodwa sineempembelelo ezibalulekileyo kwindalo. Ukubunjwa komhlaba ukusuka ekuboleni kwezityalo kuvula umnyango wekholoni ngezinye izityalo kwaye, ngokunokwenzeka, iintlobo ezihlaselayo. Oku kunokutshintsha kakhulu ukungafani kwezityalo nezilwanyana zasekhaya kunye neentshukumo zendalo kulo mmandla.
Ukugquma kwezityalo okwandisiweyo nako kuchaphazela ialbedo yommandla, ukukwazi kwayo ukubonakalisa ukukhanya kwelanga. Imiphezulu emnyama ifunxa ngakumbi amandla elanga, anokukhawulezisa ukufudumala kwasekhaya kunye nehlabathi. Lo mba ubalulekile xa kuqwalaselwa le utshintsho lwemozulu ukusuka kwii-engile ezininzi, kubandakanywa ulondolozo lwendalo eethe-ethe kunye nokulawulwa kweentlobo ezihlaselayo.
I-Antarctica ijongene nekamva elingaqinisekanga, kodwa ulwazi oluqokelelwe zizazinzulu lubonelela ngesiseko sesenzo. Intsebenziswano yamazwe ngamazwe ibalulekile ekujonganeni nale mingeni, kwaye ukuphunyezwa kwemigaqo-nkqubo esebenzayo kuya kuba yimfuneko ukunciphisa imiphumo yokutshintsha kwemozulu kummandla. Ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo, ukuqonda i Ukunyibilika komkhenkce e-Antarctica kubalulekile ukukhusela isijikelezi-langa sethu.
Kunyanzelekile ukuba sithathe amanyathelo ngoku. Hayi nje ukukhusela i-Antarctica, kodwa ukugcina ingqibelelo yeplanethi yethu. Uvakalelo lwezityalo kuSingasiqithi we-Antarctic kuguquko lwemozulu ngoku luyabonakala, kwaye kwixa elizayo, ngokufudumeza kwe-anthropogenic, sinokubona utshintsho olusisiseko kwibhayoloji kunye nembonakalo yomhlaba yalo mmandla ubalulekileyo kunye nosemngciphekweni.
