Okulandelayo Ixesha leenkanyamba zeAtlantiki libonakala ngathi alisebenzi kangako ngaphezu kwesiqhelo, ngokutsho koqikelelo lokuqala lweYunivesithi yaseColorado State (CSU). Nangona idatha inika isiqabu, iingcali zigxininisa ukuba ubunzulu obuphantsi ngokubanzi abuyisusi ingozi yokuba inkqubo enye okanye ezingaphezulu zichaphazele kakhulu iindawo ezikunxweme, kuquka nezo zaseYurophu ezibonakala kakhulu.
Phakathi Ngomhla woku-1 kweyeSilimela kunye nomhla wama-30 kweyeNkangaNgexesha elisemthethweni lexesha lonyaka, iimeko zomoya ezifana eminye iminyaka ihlelwe njengephakathi, njengo-2006, 2009, 2015 okanye 2023. Olu dibaniso lwezinto lubonisa inani leenkanyamba zasetropiki ezingaphantsi kancinci komyinge wembali, kodwa zinamandla aneleyo okwenza iziqendu zemvula enamandla, amaza amakhulu kunye nokuphazamiseka kweendlela zaselwandle nezomoya, kunye nemiphumo engathanga ngqo eSpain nakwamanye amazwe aseYurophu.
Ixesha lonyaka elizolileyo kuneliqhelekileyo
Uqikelelo lwe-CSU lubonisa ukwakheka Iziphepho ezili-13 ezibizwa ngamagama kulo lonke ixesha lonyaka. Kula mazwe, kuqikelelwa ukuba amathandathu aya kufikelela kwinqanaba lenkanyamba, ngelixa amabini kuphela anokufikelela kwinqanaba lenkanyamba enkulu, oko kukuthi, kwinqanaba lesi-3, lesi-4 okanye lesi-5 kwisikali seSaffir-Simpson, apho imimoya engapheliyo idlula iimayile ezili-111 ngeyure.
Le meko itolikwa njenge Umsebenzi we-cyclonic ungaphantsi kancinci komndilili kwiAtlantiki. Nangona kunjalo, inani lilonke leenkqubo alibonisi ngokuzenzekelayo umlinganiselo wengozi kwiindawo ezithile: kuthatha kuphela inkanyamba enye elandela indlela engalunganga ukubangela umonakalo omkhulu, kokubini kwiCaribbean nakunxweme olusempuma ye-United States, kwaye ngokungathanga ngqo, kummandla waseYurophu.
Ngokwezibalo, olu qikelelo luthelekiswa namaxesha angaphambili obushushu obuphakathi, apho kubekho iinkanyamba ezimbalwa kunokuba bekulindelwe kunyaka oxakekileyo, kodwa ezinye zisarekhodwa. iziqephu zasekuhlaleni ezinempembelelo enkuluAbaphandi bathi i-avareji isebenza njengesalathiso ngokubanzi, kodwa ayivumeli ukuba kuthintelwe iziganeko ezithile ezinobungozi obukhulu kufutshane neendawo ezihlala abantu.
Kwimeko yaseYurophu, ingqwalasela igxile kakhulu ekufikeni okunokwenzeka iintsalela zeenkanyamba zaseTropiki okanye iinkanyamba ezingaphandle kwetropiki Ezi nkqwithela, emva kokuba zibuthathaka, ziwela iAtlantiki kwaye zichaphazele iIberian Peninsula okanye ezinye iindawo zelizwekazi ngemimoya enamandla, amaza amakhulu, kunye nemvula enkulu. Imizekelo yolu hlobo lwemeko ibonwe kwiminyaka yakutshanje, nto leyo echaza umdla okhulayo kwezi zibikezelo ezivela eSpain.
Nangona ingxelo ye-CSU igxile kakhulu kwi-American Atlantic basin, iinkonzo zemozulu zaseYurophu zisebenzisa olu lwazi njenge isiseko sereferensi yokucwangcisa iiphulo zokubeka esweni, ukulungelelaniswa kwezilumkiso kunye nohlalutyo lwempembelelo enokubakho kwiziseko ezibalulekileyo, uthutho lwaselwandle kunye nokuloba.
Ilungiselelwa njani ingqikelelo yenkanyamba yexesha lonyaka?
Iingcali kwiYunivesithi yaseColorado State zisebenzisa iimodeli zezibalo kunye ne-dynamic ezidibanisa idatha yembali, ubushushu bomphezulu wolwandle, kunye neepateni ezinkulu zomoyaIzinto eziphambili ziquka izinto ezifana ne-El Niño okanye i-La Niña, ukujikeleza ngokubanzi komoya, kunye nezinye izinto ezichaphazela ukwakheka kunye nobukhulu bezivuthuvuthu zasetropiki.
Xa iipateni ezibonwayo zifana nezo zeminyaka edlulileyo, ezifana 2006, 2009, 2015 okanye 2023Abaphandi benza uthelekiso ukuze baqikelele ukuba zingaphi izivuthuvuthu ezinokuvela kunye nethuba lokuba zifikelele kwimeko yenkanyamba okanye yenkanyamba enkulu. Olu thelekiso lunciphisa uluhlu lweemeko ezinokwenzeka, lubeka ixesha lonyaka lika-2026 kwiqela leminyaka elinemisebenzi ephakathi.
Uqikelelo lwezivuthuvuthu ezili-13 eziqanjwe ngamagama, izivuthuvuthu ezi-6, kunye nezivuthuvuthu ezinkulu ezimbini luthathwa njengenani elibonisayo, kungekhona eliqinisekileyo. Njengoko intwasahlobo iqhubeka kwaye kusondela ukuqala [kwexesha lonyaka] ixesha elisemthethweni nge-1 kaJuniIimodeli zihlaziywa ngedatha entsha, okuvumela uhlengahlengiso kulindelo lokuqala oluya phezulu okanye ezantsi kuxhomekeke kwindlela iimeko zaseAtlantiki eziguquka ngayo.
Kumazwe aseYurophu, ezi ngxelo zisebenza njengemephu yokuqala yomngcipheko, ethi emva koko yongezwe kukubekwa esweni kweenkqubo mihla le xa sele ziqalile. Iinkonzo zemozulu zesizwe kunye namaziko okuqikelela imozulu kulo lonke elaseYurophu. Bahlala bebeka esweni indlela kunye nokuguquka kwesaqhwithi ngasinyeukuvavanya ukuba ingaba ingayichaphazela na, nokuba ishiyekile, imida ye-Atlantic yaseYurophu.
Kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba uqikelelo lwexesha lonyaka alujolisi ekuchongeni ngqo iindawo eziza kuchaphazeleka, kodwa lujolise ekunikezeni umbono wehlabathi jikelele wenqanaba lomsebenzi kulindeleke kwisitya. Isigqibo malunga nezilumkiso ezithile kunye namanyathelo okukhusela senziwa emva koko, ngokusekelwe kwindlela yokwenyani yenkanyamba nganye, rhoqo ngesaziso seentsuku ezimbalwa kuphela.
Indima yokubhalwa kwamagama: ukusuka ku-Arthur ukuya ku-Wilfred
Inkqubo yokuqala yetropiki yeli xesha efikelela kubunzulu obaneleyo bokuthiywa igama iya kuthiywa igama Arthur, kulandele uBertha. La magama awakhethwanga ngokungacwangciswanga: ayinxalenye yoluhlu olumiselwe kwangaphambili oluqulunqwe yikomiti ekhethekileyo ye-World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), elawula iikhathalogu ezijikelezayo zamagama angama-21 kwisitya ngasinye solwandle.
Ukususela ngo-1953, iziphepho zaseTropiki eAtlantiki ziye zachongwa yi uluhlu lwamagama alungiselelwe ukwenza lula unxibelelwanoendaweni yokusebenzisa kuphela ii-geographic coordinates. Ngokuhamba kwexesha, le nkqubo iye yaphuculwa yaba yinkqubo yamazwe ngamazwe equka ikomiti ye-WMO, ehlaziya, igcina, kwaye ihlaziya uluhlu rhoqo.
Okwangoku, uluhlu ngalunye lujikeleza rhoqo emva kweminyaka emithandathu, ngoko ke amagama asetyenziswe kwixesha lonyaka lika-2026 aza kuvela kwakhona ngo-2032, ngaphandle kokuba elinye lawo lisusiwe ngezizathu ezikhethekileyo. Injongo yale ndlela kukugcina iseti yamagama aziwayo, afanelekileyo ngokwenkcubeko, kwaye kulula ukuwabiza kwiindawo ezinokuthi zichaphazeleke.
Kwi-Atlantic Basin, amagama asetyenziswa kwi IsiNgesi, iSpanish nesiFrentshiOku kubonisa ukwahluka kweelwimi zamazwe asemngciphekweni, ukusuka kwiCaribbean ukuya kumanxweme aseYurophu. Ngaphezu koko, amagama amadoda namabhinqa ayatshintshwa, kwaye oonobumba abangaqhelekanga abanjengo-Q, U, X, Y, okanye u-Z bayathintelwa ngenxa yobunzima bokufumana iindlela ezaziwayo eziqala ngaloo magama okuqala.
Uluhlu olubekelwe ixesha lonyaka ka-2026, ukongeza ku-Arthur noBertha, luquka amagama anjengoCristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Lea, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, kunye noWilfred. Ngalinye lala magama lisebenza ngokulandelelana njengoko Kuqalwa iziphepho ezintsha zaseTropical ezifikelela kubunzulu obufunekayo ukuze zihlelwe kwaye zibekwe esweni ngokusemthethweni.
Kutheni amanye amagama eenkanyamba erhoxiswa?
Enye yezona zinto zibalaseleyo kwinkqubo yokubiza amagama yinkqubo esetyenziswayo xa kuvela inkanyamba itshabalalisa kakhulu okanye ibangela inani elikhulu labantu abenzakeleyoKwiimeko ezinjalo, igama lisuswa ngokupheleleyo kuluhlu, njengophawu lwentlonipho nokuthintela ukudideka kwiirekhodi zembali kunye nenkumbulo edibeneyo.
Isigqibo sokurhoxisa igama senziwa ngexesha iintlanganiso zonyaka ze-World Meteorological Organisationapho amazwe angamalungu achaphazelekayo anokuphakamisa "ukuthatha umhlala-phantsi" kwamagama athile. Ukuba ayamkelwe, igama liyayeka ukusetyenziswa kwaye kukhethwa elinye elifanele uluhlu olufanayo lwealfabhethi kwaye lihlangabezana neemfuno zokucaca kunye nokubaluleka kwenkcubeko.
Le nkqubo iqinisekisa ukuba ii-database zemozulu kunye nohlalutyo lwempembelelo azicaci xa kubhekiselwa kwisiganeko esithile. Ngoko ke, xa inkanyamba yembali ikhankanywa ngegama elithile, kwaziwa ukuba Bekukho isiqendu esinye kuphela esinelo gamaOku kwenza kube lula umsebenzi wabaphandi, abeendaba, kunye neearhente zokhuseleko loluntu.
Kuluntu ngokubanzi, ukusebenzisa amagama endaweni yeekhowudi zamanani okanye ii-coordinates kwenza kube lula ukukhumbula nokulandelela ukuguquka kwenkqubo nganye. Kwiimeko ezinobungozi, oku kucaca kubalulekile kwi imiyalezo yesilumkiso iyaqondakala kwaye isasazwa ngokukhawulezaOku kubaluleke kakhulu kwiindawo apho ulwazi lobugcisa luncinci khona.
Kwimeko yaseYurophu, nangona uninzi lweenkanyamba luphelelwa ngamandla ngaphambi kokuba lusondele kwiindawo zethu, into yokuba bezisaziwa kakhulu ngamagama kwiindaba zamazwe ngamazwe inceda ekuqinisekiseni ukuba, xa iintsalela zazo zichaphazela iSpain okanye amanye amazwe angabamelwane, sele kukho i- isalathiso esicacileyo semvelaphi yayo kunye nendlela eyahamba ngayo.
Ixesha eliphakathi alithethi ukuba akukho mingcipheko.
Iiarhente zemozulu nezokhuseleko loluntu zisikhumbuza ukuba, nangona izalathisi zikhomba kwi Ixesha leenkanyamba lika-2026 alizukuba qatha kangako., la Ukulungiselela Ihlala ibalulekile. EYurophu naseSpain, uninzi lwempembelelo enokubakho luvela kwiinkqubo ezifika zibuthathaka kodwa zisenako ukuvelisa amaza anamandla, imvula engapheliyo, kunye notshintsho lwemozulu olukhawulezileyo.
Ukulandelela izivuthuvuthu eziqanjwe ngamagama ukusuka kwinqanaba lazo lokuqala kwiAtlantiki kuvumela iinkonzo zemozulu zaseYurophu ukuba ziqikelele ukuba isivuthuvuthu esithile sinokutshintsha na, emva kweentsuku, size sitshintshe. ichaphazela ngokungathanga ngqo imeko-bume ye-peninsulaEli xesha libalulekile ekuhlengahlengiseni iindlela zokuthutha imithwalo, ukucwangcisa imiqathango enokubakho kwimisebenzi yezibuko, okanye ukuqinisa izilumkiso kubemi abakwiindawo ezikunxweme.
Nangona kwiminyaka emininzi yomsebenzi ophakathi, inkumbulo yexesha elidlulileyo ibonisa ukuba ezinye zezinto izikhukula ezinkulu okanye iziphepho zaselunxwemeni Izivuthuvuthu ezirekhodwe eSpain zinxulumene neentsalela zezivuthuvuthu zetropiki okanye iinkqubo zoxinzelelo oluphantsi ezivela kuzo. Ke ngoko, "ukuzola" okubonakalayo kwengxelo-mbono yehlabathi akufuneki kukhokelele ekuzithobeni.
Ukudibanisa iinkanyamba ezimbalwa kunye nokucwangcisa okuhle kunokunciphisa amathuba okwenzakala okukhulu, kodwa iingcali zicebisa ukuba izicwangciso zongxamiseko zihlale zihlaziyiwe kwaye zihlolwe. ukomelela kweziseko ezingundoqo ezibalulekileyo xa kukho umoya nemvula enkulu kwaye baqhubeke nokuphucula iinkqubo zokulumkisa kwangethuba, kwinqanaba likazwelonke kunye nokulungelelaniswa phakathi kwamazwe aseYurophu.
Nangona uqikelelo lubonisa ukuba ixesha leenkanyamba lika-2026 aliyi kuba namandla kangako kunezinye ixesha leenkanyamba ezixakekileyo kakhulu kwixesha elidlulileyo, umfanekiso uwonke ubonisa ukuba imisebenzi ephakathi nendawo enokubakho kweziqendu ezibalulekileyoUlwazi olubonelelwe yiColorado State University, kunye nomsebenzi oqhubekayo weWorld Meteorological Organisation kunye neenkonzo zemozulu zaseYurophu, lubonelela ngesiseko esiqinileyo sokujonga ngokusondeleyo ukuguquka kwexesha kunye nokwenza izigqibo ezinolwazi, sikhumbula ukuba, kwimiba yezivuthuvuthu, into enye ehlelwe kakuhle yanele ukwenza umahluko kunyaka ozolileyo.
